Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have a 6-pack of NBA games tonight with massive injuries headlining the slate: Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson will all be out tonight as the Heat take on the Bucks in Milwaukee. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable and Cam Johnson is out for the Celtics’ matchup against Brooklyn, while Malcolm Brogdon is out for the Trail Blazers. As you can see, we are crawling into All-Star Weekend and motivation for these guys is at an all-time low. Do you remember how much work you did in school before Christmas break? Yup, the same principle applies here. However, we can still find a good angle to attack in NBA on any given night, so let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bet of the day, and you can also find out expert NBA picks for today’s biggest games.
Bam Adebayo (MIA) over 4.5 assists (-104)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This play is a direct correlation to the injury news I mentioned above. The Heat will be shorthanded tonight against a Bucks team on a back-to-back. Tyler Herro is the obvious beneficiary from a usage standpoint, but we’ve seen from many instances with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup that Miami runs the offensive through Bam Adebayo and possessions where he is bringing the ball up. The two biggest beneficiaries of Bam assists are Duncan Robinson and Herro — 81 of Bam’s 173 assists (46%) have gone to these 2 guys, specifically on above-the-break threes.
Since Doc Rivers took over as head coach of the Bucks, Milwaukee is still middle of the pack in terms of above-the-breaks made (9.4 per game) and shooting percentage (36.8%). Bam has gone over this mark in 9 of 15 games (60%) that Butler’s missed this season. Lastly, the Bucks are giving up the 11th-most assists to opposing centers over their last 5 games and they rank in the bottom 5 on the season. 1u
We have a pick from Heat vs Bucks as part of tonight’s NBA mega parlay at HUGE +1207 odds
