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NBA fans, we’ve made it. It’s been 134 days since we saw the Denver Nuggets hoist the trophy and they’ll tip off the season against the Los Angeles Lakers TONIGHT! To follow, the new look Pheonix Suns will travel to Golden State and take on the Warriors. Let’s dive into our top NBA player prop bet for Tuesday, October 24, and be sure to check out our NBA predictions for both games.
Kevin Durant (PHX) Under 5.5 assists (-136)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Here we go. We’re starting the season with an uncomfortable under on arguably the most talented player in basketball — Kevin Durant. Durant is a joy to watch, and I’m sure I’ll enjoy watching him score on Tuesday night but not pass the ball. We’re getting a +EV look with every other major book offering this player prop at 4.5. We have to take on some vig, but I would play this up to -140.
The new-look Suns acquired Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic in the off-season to replace Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton in the starting lineup — two moves that may finally push them to their first title in franchise history. We won’t look too far ahead, but this lineup is extremely talented. Beal is one of the most gifted scorers in the league, while Nurkic is one of the best passing big men the association has to offer. Sure, they’ll command the ball, but we still need to address the presence of the leader of this team, Devin Booker.
Booker will likely lead the team in usage (as he should). His 29% usage rate in last year’s playoffs edged Durant by 0.03%. Nothing crazy. Booker also has the highest over/under assist line of the Suns at 6.5, as sportsbooks expect Booker to draw the point guard role and command most of the offense. Insert another ball-dominant guard in Beal, who can score at will in the pick-and-roll and isolation. I expect the trio to use Nurkic a ton in the pick-and-roll and work in the mid-range area where all three excel.
Getting 5.5 assists is the important part here. I would not take the under of 4.5 as Durant eclipsed that line in 8/11 playoff games compared to 5/11 at 5.5. Durant failed to reach this mark in 7/8 regular season games as a member of the Suns. A limited sample size with different pieces but encouraging for this under. This will be an ultra-competitive game against a sound Golden State Warriors team that ranked in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency and assists given up last season. The Warriors will be without elite defensive presence Draymond Green, but that may open up Durant to score more. I’ll be holding my breath every time Durant swings the ball to the perimeter, but I like this look on opening night.
Check out our NBA mega parlay for Saturday Night +590 odds!
