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We’re almost at the all-star break; until then, we have plenty of action across the league. Thursday presents bettors with a 4-game slate, with 3 totals of at least 235 points.
I have come up with 2 player prop bets for the action on Thursday, February 2, but in addition to that make sure you read our NBA predictions for the biggest games on the docket.
LeBron James, PF, LAL, Over 14.5 Rebs + Asts (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
These props were a staple for me last season, but I’ve taken a step back from them. With rebounds + assists props, margins are extremely thin. If you have an edge, you’ll have to pay the vig for it — just like the one we’re playing tonight. My top NBA player prop for Thursday, February 1, is LeBron James Over 14.5 rebounds + assists at -135 on DraftKings.
James seems to always get up when playing the Boston Celtics, especially as a member of the Lakers. In the 10 that James has played as a Laker against the Celtics, he is over this line in 7 — including each of the last 3. Going back even 2+ years is not highly relevant, as lineups and coaches change, but James stuffs the stat sheet against the Celtics.
Let me dive into why I’m paying the juice for 14.5. At 14.5 rebounds + assists, James is over this line in 57% of his games this season. At 15.5, that percentage drops to 48%. In a 44-game sample size, that’s worth the extra 37 cents.
From a matchup standpoint, both teams ranked in the top half of the league in pace of play in January, while the Celtics allowed the 3rd-most rebounds per game during that span. The Celtics are stout from an assist standpoint, but James is a huge catalyst of the Lakers’ offense. His assist line is juiced to the over of 7.5, while averaging over 11 assist opportunities in his last 10 games.
Primetime TV always seems to get James to give them some extra juice. Being +11 underdogs is a scary sight, but I have faith in James to make this game competitive and play around his average of 35 minutes. It’s worth noting that when James plays at least 32 minutes, he is over this line in 19 of 34 games.
Read our +423 Same Game Parlay for Lakers-Celtics
John Collins, C, UTA, Over 23.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Here I am again paying vig for a player prop bet. But we’re getting one less PRA than the other major books and paying about 10 cents more; that’s fine by me. The Utah Jazz will play host to the Philadelphia Embiid-less 76ers. That is great news for Utah. The 76ers are not only 3-9 without Embiid, but more importantly, opponents’ offensive rating rises to 116 when Embiid is off the floor.
The 76ers ran a small-ball lineup against the Warriors when Embiid was off the floor in their last game. Paul Reed played just 9 minutes, while KJ Martin logged 26 minutes. Nonetheless, John Collins should have a great game on the glass. Collins is averaging over 10 rebounds per game in his last 5 played, while also shooting nearly 60% from the field during that span. His 12+ field-goal attempts per game with a usage rate of at least 18.5% is encouraging for Collins to have a big game, even with the presence of Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen.
