Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Thursday nights in the NBA are always a small slate, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find a few spots to bet on. The two games tonight are the Pacers vs Bucks, both on a back-to-back, followed by the Hawks vs Magic. You can read our NBA predictions, but now let’s look at my favorite props for tonight’s games.
Jalen Johnson (ATL) over 20.5 points + rebounds (-113)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Jalen Johnson has been injected into the starting lineup for the Hawks this season and it has yielded very positive results. He’s averaging 0.74 points/rebounds per minute of play and +13.4 when on the floor as a starter. At 6’9″, he’s giving this Hawks team size on the perimeter and flexibility on defense that will certainly help tonight against Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero of the Magic.
He moves really well in transition and has created his own shot in spurts, attacking the rim to go along with shooting 41% from 3-point range as a starter. I love this spot for him because he should be locked in for 30+ minutes, projecting him at 22.2 points and rebounds. He could very well see 32+ minutes, making this line a steal. 1.13U to win 1.
Bruce Brown (IND) under 16.5 points + rebounds (-113)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I hate doing this, but at the end of the day it’s a numbers game. Bruce Brown is averaging 15.3 points and rebounds per game on 30 minutes of play, implying he would need to see 34 minutes tonight for us to even entertain his over, and that should not happen. Brown has eclipsed 34 minutes in only 2 of 8 games and being the second game of a back-to-back he’s in jeopardy of being closer to the 30-minute mark.
Also, Giannis is coming off a game in which he was ejected for making the “too small” gesture and my gut tells me he will go scorched earth tonight against the Pacers, making this a blowout scenario and further limiting Brown’s minutes. Milwaukee has been getting thrashed by guards, but their size in the frontcourt should make it difficult for Brown to grab easy rebounds and also contest threes on the perimeter. 1U
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