Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The NBA has a smaller slate on Thursday as it refuses to compete with the NFL’s TNF for ratings (can you blame them?). Either way, I like smaller slates. It gives us more time to focus on the player props available to us and pick better spots.
We have 4 games, with the Spurs vs Suns repeat being the highlight of the night. After San Antonio stole a win on Tuesday night, we can expect Phoenix to come out hot. Other than that, we get both Detroit and New Orleans on a back-to-back, with the Raptors and 76ers as a watchable early game. You can read our NBA predictions for each game, but now let’s look at my player prop picks.
OG Anunoby (Raptors) 14+ points + rebounds/Tobias Harris (76ers) over 13.5 points (+115)
Same Game Parlay available on DraftKings Sportsbook
OG Anunoby is bouncing back nicely after a down 2022-2023 season and his numbers would look even better if he hadn’t injured his leg against Chicago on October 28. He’s seen 30+ minutes in 2 of 4 games and was on track for another against Chicago (27) until he got hurt and missed the 4th quarter. The Milwaukee game was a blowout in which he was pulled midway through the 4th quarter. Regardless, he’s averaging 0.6 points and rebounders per minute for his career and I have him pegged at another 30+ minute performance, projecting him at 18+. I’m playing the alt. line in case this game gets out of hand as the spread (+8.5) would indicate.
Tobias Harris is another guy who has been consistent in his point production at 0.51 points per minute for his career as a starter and is at 0.53 this season, so not much deviation. He’s playing major minutes so far this season, but the alt. line is chosen to account for regression — this 13.5 should be covered with 26 minutes of play and I’m covering myself due to the blowout potential. 1U
Walker Kessler (Jazz) over 7.5 points (-125)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Walker Kessler is playing a big front court tonight in the Orlando Magic, which many would shy away from, but I just see that as more Kessler on the floor. More minutes equals more scoring opportunities. As a starter, Kessler is averaging 0.37 points per minute and he would need 21 minutes to clear this line.
Luckily, he has hit that in 4 of 5 games this season and the size and depth of Wendell Carter Jr and Jonathan Isaac would imply he should see 25+ minutes. Don’t believe me? Last season, he played 31 and 27 minutes against Orlando and hit this line with ease (13 points in each). Take this for 1.5U and hope we don’t see any foul trouble. I’ll play his alt. line of 10+ as well, but make sure you shop around.
Check out today’s NBA mega parlay (+1139 odds!)
