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Yesterday’s mega slate of 9 games leaves us with 5 games to bet on tonight — more than enough to find value. I’ll look to make it 6 wins in a row on my end with 2 NBA player prop bets for tonight’s action. Let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bets for Thursday, January 18. Also, make sure you read our NBA predictions for today’s games.
Xavier Tillman, C, MEM, Under 18.5 PRA (-104)
Odds available at Caesars at time of publishing.
Let’s start with the great price Caesars Sportsbook is offering for Xavier Tillman under 18.5 points + rebounds + assists. Caesars is clearing the major market by a mile by offering this player prop bet at -104. FanDuel has this same number and prop priced at -128, while DraftKings is -120. Aside from the +EV side, let’s dive into why I expect Tillman to struggle tonight down low against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
With the plethora of injuries on the Memphis side, Tillman is in line for 30+ tonight. When betting unders, we’re looking at all outs, including a blowout and foul trouble — 2 very high possibilities tonight. The Timberwolves are playing their 2nd game of a back-to-back but still come in as 12-point favorites against a now-tanking Grizzlies team. But Tillman still will stick to his role as a rim protector on defense and 4th-to-5th option on offense behind Jaren Jackson Jr, Luke Kennard and Vince Williams.
The hope is the Timberwolves will let Karl-Anthony Towns defend Jaren Jackson Jr. on the perimeter, while Rudy Gobert can patrol the paint and ultimately limit Tillman from offensive rebound chances. Nonetheless, I expect Tillman to struggle and stay under this line in back-to-back games.
Check out our Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Same Game Parlay as we look to cash our 2nd in a row!
Alex Caruso, SG, CHI, Over 9.5 points (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I’m excited to sweat this one out with you guys. Alex Caruso has been in trade talks all season long, and rightfully so. He’s one of the top perimeter defenders in the game and is coming into his own on the offensive side. He’s scored at least 10 points in 19 of his last 30 games and continues to get wide-open looks with defenses locking in Coby White, DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine. Targeting the 5th option on offense can be scary, but we’re banking on Caruso getting great looks and converting them — which he has been doing consistently.
I’m expecting at least 25 minutes out of Caruso with the Chicago Bulls dealing with injuries tonight. The list is long, and Caruso must be leaned upon on both sides of the ball. When Caruso plays with the core of the Bulls healthy and sees at least 25 minutes, he’s over this line in 7 of 11 games, including scoring 13 points in the season’s opening month against Toronto. The new-look Raptors will be thin tonight with Pascal Siakam on his way to Indiana, so we could see plenty of defensive lapses from their end.
Set your sights on our NBA mega parlay for today’s action at HUGE +1343 odds
