Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We did it…. We have arrived at the final day of the 2023-24 NBA regular season. On the final day where all 30 teams are in action, it is our job to sieve through the tricky information about stakes and rotations and find you the best spots to make money.
This season I am 48-34 for a +12.1% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for Sunday, April 14.
Patrick Beverley, MIL Under 7.5 rebounds + assists (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Milwaukee Bucks face the Orlando Magic in a matchup in which both teams are motivated to win. The Bucks have a ceiling of the #2 seed and would also like to get away from a potential tough first round matchup against the 76ers or the Heat and one way to do that is hand the Magic a loss. The Magic themselves are involved in some complicated tiebreaker scenarios and would like to stay as the #5 seed with a win here. Indeed, the Vegas spread is a short one here (5 points) and we expect Damian Lillard to play and he’ll have to be the leading usage player with Giannis Antetokounmpo already ruled out.
In three starts for Milwaukee with Antetokounmpo ruled out, Patrick Beverley has cleared this line in every game but there is a reason this line is set so low. Overall for the Bucks, he averages 8.99 rebounds+assists per 30 minutes but filtering for the minutes where Lillard is on the floor and Antetokounmpo is off the floor, he sees a 0.4% drop in usage rate, 0.12% drop in rebound rate, and 1.78% drop in assist rate. Add in the fact that Khris Middleton is available for this contest and there simply aren’t a lot of opportunities for Beverley to be involved in these categories.
To cap it all off, this is a tough matchup. Over their last 15 games the Magic have allowed the third-fewest assists in the NBA and are an above-average defense at the rim and against the three-ball, which is how Beverley collects most of his assists in the Doc Rivers offensive scheme. Additionally, a majority of Beverley’s rebounds come from jumpers in the above-the-break and long midrange areas; over their last 15 games, the Magic rank bottom-10 in the league in attempts from both those zones. In this spot, assuming 30 minutes, we project Beverley for 6.50 rebounds+assists but it is also of note that he could lose minutes via either poor game script or foul trouble, given the heavy driving nature of Orlando’s offense. I would fade this line down a -115 price.
Keyonte George, UTA Over 2.5 threes made (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Rookie Keyonte George looks to have a long, successful career ahead of him and flashed glimpses of brilliance in his entry to the league. That being said, he has been cold lately and would love to cap off the season by snapping out of a slump and reminding the world of his ceiling in a game where the Utah Jazz have nothing tangible to play for.
On the season as a starter, George has averaged 2.1 makes on 6.5 attempts from deep per 30 minutes but this Sunday, Utah will be down several key rotational players, including Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen and John Collins. The usage should be through the roof for the young guard and in three starts without Sexton, George has gone 2-for-9, 2-for-6 and 2-for-7 from 3 despite running into a couple of tough matchups.
Sunday’s matchup against the Golden State Warriors is one made in heaven. Over their last 15 games, the Warriors have allowed the 9th-most pullup threes made, the 7th-most catch-and-shoot threes made, and the 8th-most above-the-break threes made int he league. Although Golden State could rest key rotational players, they are still fighting for home court in the play-in tournament and Steve Kerr’s defensive scheme tends to stay fairly stable. In this spot I am projecting George for 30 minutes, 7.5 attempts and 2.8 makes from deep — making this line playable down to a -120 price.
