Germantas Kneita
Show Bio
The NBA season is off to a great start this week, with some thrilling games in the books already — including an overtime thriller between the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers will be in action once more tonight on what looks to be a fantastic 10-game slate. Among the other teams in action will be their neighbors, the Los Angeles Lakers taking on the Sacramento Kings and the defending champion Boston Celtics taking on the Detroit Pistons.
You can find all of our NBA previews here, but for now let’s take a look at my favorite player props for Saturday’s slate.
James Harden (LAC) to record a triple-double (+1600)
With Kawhi Leonard remaining out, the Clippers will once again rely heavily on James Harden. The star guard came just 2 assists shy of recording a triple-double in the season opener and should have a great shot of doing so again — making this a great value look. His opponents tonight are the Denver Nuggets, who struggled to score in the season opener, making just 17.9% of their 3-point attempts. That should ensure Harden has no shortage of rebounding opportunities. Spending some time matched up against Russell Westbrook should also allow him to drop back into the paint, considering the point guards lack of a shooting threat. With the usage he is expected to see tonight, assists should come to the guard who has averaged over 10 per game in 5 of his last 6 seasons.
Domantas Sabonis (SAC) Over 12.5 rebounds (-120)
Domantas Sabonis dominated the matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers last season. In 4 games against them last season, he averaged 17.5 rebounds. The Lakers starting unit is largely unchanged form last season, with the Lithuanian lining up against Anthony Davis once more. The Lakers star is not someone who will pull Sabonis away from the rim, having not averaged better than 28% from beyond the arc in any of his last 4 seasons. While Sabonis did only manage 8 boards in his season opener, it was against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that attempted 50 3-pointers, which leads to long rebounding opportunities, not beneficial for those in the paint. With the Lakers currently ranking 28th in the league in 3-point attempts per game, that should not be an issue tonight.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) Over 10.5 rebounds (-125)
The Washington Wizards opted to start rookie Alex Sarr at center in their season opener against the Boston Celtics. Al Horford did not prove to be a tricky physical matchup in that game, but that should be very different tonight against Jarrett Allen. The Cleveland Cavaliers’ center was in the top 10 last season in offensive rebounds per game. He will have a significant weight advantage over his rookie opponent and should have no trouble establishing position down low. Sarr also made just 1 of 7 attempts in his debut. Following a far from convincing summer league, I cannot see Allen being too concerned with closing down his jump shot. Jonas Valanciunas, whenever he comes into the game, is bound to keep the battle with Allen in the paint, too. The Cavaliers center pulled down 11 boards against the Detroit Pistons last night and should be able to build on that performance tonight.
Alperen Sengun (HOU) Over 28.5 points + rebounds (-120)
For many in the league, going against Victor Wembanyama meant an off night scoring-wise in the paint last season. Not for Alperen Sengun. In 3 matchups against the San Antonio Spurs last season, the Turkish center averaged 28.3 points and 13 rebounds per game. He is already off to a strong start to this season, too, having hit the over on this line in both of his games — including a 25-point and 18-rebound performance against the Charlotte Hornets. With Chris Paul struggling to keep players in front of him in the Spurs season opener, expect Wembanyama to have to play a significant role as a help defender once more tonight. That should position Sengun well to act as an outlet while also allowing him to gain favorable rebounding position on the offensive end.
