Ahaan Rungta
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After an eventful weekend slate in the association, we have a small six-game slate on Monday but a few spots of value in the player prop betting department. The author is now 31-21 for a +13.7% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are two of his favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, February 5.
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) Under 28.5 points (-113)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The star scorer Donovan Mitchell has cleared this line with ease a few times recently but a full season’s worth of games is a much more meaningful sample, especially with the Cavaliers looking nearly as healthy as they have been in a while. Most importantly, point guard Darius Garland and power forward Evan Mobley are back in Cleveland’s starting lineup. This season, when Garland and Mobley both play, Mitchell averages 27.9 points per 36 minutes. Some of his previous masterclasses in this situation included matchups against the Pacers, Pistons, and Spurs. Today’s matchup against the Kings provides a completely different set of challenges, which was reflected when Mitchell scored only 22 points in 38 minutes in their previous meeting in November despite an efficient 44.4% from deep.
On the season, the Kings are a top-ten defense at the rim and in the mid-range area, where Mitchell gets a large amount of his field goal volume. In addition, the Kings are the second-most efficient isolation defense and the eighth-most efficient spot-up shooting defense (by points per possession allowed). Even in the event of a close game where Mitchell logs north of 35 minutes, this line should be closer to 25.5, not where it is at right now.
Mikal Bridges (BKN) OVER 8.5 rebounds+assists (-106)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
An inter-conference battle takes place today in Brooklyn and the game is a pick ’em and the Vegas total is sky-high (237.5). This matchup could be the closest battle of the NBA slate and with the Nets having several injury designations, that should mean heavy run for the starters, such as leader of the pack Mikal Bridges.
Backup center Day’Ron Sharpe and starting forward Dorian Finney-Smith are listed out and starting center Nicolas Claxton will have to defend away from the basket often with the Warriors playing several small-ball lineups; that should increase the rebounding opportunities for Bridges. Point forward Ben Simmons is listed out; that should open up playmaking opportunities for Bridges. On the season, Bridges already averages 8.7 rebounds+assists per 35 minutes with Ben Simmons inactive. Now he faces a Warriors team that has the tools to defend him one-on-one with Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga both likely to start, but can be porous against the three-ball (bottom-five defense last 7 games), where Bridges racks up most of his assists. It is time to buy-low on the versatility of the Nets’ franchise cornerstone.
