Ahaan Rungta
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In the first weekend of NBA games since the all-star break, we saw back-to-back large slates of action and we are now met with a relatively quiet 4-game day on the hardwood. However, even with just 4 games to choose from, we have found value on the betting board. I now have a 37-23 record this season for a +18.0% ROI with my NBA player props. Let’s see if I can improve on that tonight. Here are 2 of my favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, February 26, and you can also read our NBA picks for today’s action.
Cade Cunningham (DET) Under 21.5 points (-119)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The New York Knicks have finally hit somewhat of a skid and they remain without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. Yet, they are getting plenty of respect at home against the rebuilding Detroit Pistons, and rightfully so, as they are 11-point favorites. This, alone, is cause for concern with regard to minutes for Pistons starters. Head coach Monty Williams will have a rested bench at his disposal with only 2 members of the roster on the injury report. Indeed, Williams has been freely using his backups early and often, endangering the need for Cade Cunningham to play heavy minutes for 4 quarters.
However, even if you assume full minutes in a close contest for the former #1 overall pick, this line is a tad high. On the season, he has averaged 22.6 points per 35 minutes in games without Bojan Bogdanovic (who is now on the Knicks). New York’s defense is banged up but still a tough matchup for top options with a scoring profile like Cunningham, who has primarily relied on close-range shots in the paint and midrange areas. Over their last 7 games, the Knicks’ defense still ranks top-5 in both zones. In this potentially icky gamescript, we project Cunningham for 19.5 points, making this line playable down to a -125 price.
Start the week by checking out our NBA mega parlay for tonight at +1139 odds
Dorian Finney-Smith (BKN) 2+ made threes (+105)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
On a small menu of games to choose from on Monday, the only one with a close spread is the near-pick’em between the Brooklyn Nets and Memphis Grizzlies. Although the Nets’ rotations have been an adventure all season long even with a coaching change, there’s value in the catch-and-shoot forward Dorian Finney-Smith.
In 2 games since the all-star break when Brooklyn made a change at skipper, Finney-Smith recorded just 14 minutes in a super-blowout against Toronto where he dealt with early foul trouble but then 30 minutes in a somewhat competitive game against Minnesota. Despite the inconsistencies for him offensively this season, his versatility on defense has kept him in the starting lineup. Against a heavily depleted and inexperienced Memphis Grizzlies team that has given up the 9th-most above-the-break three-pointers made over their last 1o games, Finney-Smith should get plenty of open shots once again. On the season, he has averaged 1.7 makes on 4.7 attempts from three per 25 minutes as a starter. With Spencer Dinwiddie off the team, Nicolas Claxton still starting and Ben Simmons potentially being active in this game, someone has to take on a catch-and-shoot role in this battle of bottom-feeding teams.
For all those reasons, we project Finney-Smith for 5.00 attempts and 1.75 makes from three in this spot, making this prop playable down to a -120 price.
