Ahaan Rungta
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The NBA playoffs are officially here and every series is one game in. The grind for betting the postseason is a long one and we are here to make it easier for you to navigate the tricky board. This season I am 52-35 for a +14.5% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series, and our NBA props handicappers as a whole are on a fantastic 19-5 run.
Let’s dive into my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for the 3-game playoff slate of Monday, April 22. You can also find out our NBA picks for each of those matchups.
Gary Harris (ORL) Over 5.5 points (-123)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Orlando Magic are back in the playoffs but they got a rude awakening on the road when the Cleveland Cavaliers started clicking on all cylinders early and Orlando couldn’t buy a shot to fall across the roster. In the middle of all of that was Gary Harris, who was in for 33 minutes and held his own defensively but managed zero points. This, however, should be viewed as a buy-low opportunity because the volume was not the issue. Harris went 0-for-6 from the field, including 0-for-five from 3. More particularly, per NBA Stats, 4 of Harris’ 5 attempts from deep were classified as open or wide open. This is no coincidence.
In the regular season, the Cavaliers were the 13th-worst spot-up efficiency defense and over the last 12 games (marking the return of Evan Mobley), they allowed the 2nd-most above the break 3-point makes, 9th-most corner 3-point makes and 3rd-most catch-and-shoot 3-point makes. They are also a below-average defense in the midrange and at the rim, as well. The only area of the court where the Cavaliers have been stable and elite is in the paint, due to the size of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, but that’s not Harris’ calling anyway.
Harris should get similar open looks once again and on the season, he averages 6.8 points per 25 minutes when he is in the starting lineup alongside Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. In this spot I project Harris for 8.0 points, making this line playable up to a -135 price.
This Gary Harris player prop bet has the best odds available with Caesars Sportsbook, where new users can get first-bet insurance up to $1,000 after they sign up by clicking this link.
Jalen Brunson (NYK) Under 11.5 rebounds + assists (-111)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Philadelphia 76ers and the New York Knicks have met several times this season already, and in Game 1 of the series we unsurprisingly got to witness a muddy low-scoring battle. Vegas expects Game 2 to be even more of a defensive dogfight, as the total is set at an absurdly low 209 points. Expect slow pace and a lack of clean offense in this contest, which opens the doors to fade Jalen Brunson in this way.
The 76ers’ defensive scheme with Joel Embiid playing is based on drop coverage, which allows for pull-up jumpers and vulnerability to Brunson as a scorer in the paint. However, over their last 15 games Philly is a top-10 defense at the rim and against above-the-break threes — the 2 zones that combine for 67.2% of Brunson’s assists this season. As for rebounding, Brunson’s hottest opponent shooting zone to feast on the glass are long midranges. However, over the last 15 games Philadelphia is in the bottom-10 in field-goal attempts from that area of the court.
Overall since the injury to Julius Randle, Brunson has averaged 12.1 rebounds+assists per 40 minutes with OG Anunoby active. In Game 1 of the series, although he cleared this line it was on unsustainably high conversion rates; his 7 rebounds came on 10 rebound chances and his 7 assists came on 12 potential assists. In this tough matchup I project 4.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists, making this line playable down to a -125 price.
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