Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We are just a few weeks away from the end of the NBA regular season and play-in spots are very much on the line. Make no mistake, there is a lot at stake in the association and still plenty of player props for us to take advantage of while we still have tons of action. I’m now 37-27 for a +10.4% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series. Here are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, March 4, and you can also check out our NBA picks for today’s big games.
Taylor Hendricks (UTA) Over 9.5 points (-104)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
A first-round draft pick of the 2023 class, Taylor Hendricks is finally getting a shot to start in the NBA and with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler both ruled out of this matchup, Hendricks’ opportunities should be elevated and his floor for playing time should be 25 minutes barring early foul trouble. On the season, Hendricks is averaging 8.1 points per 25 minutes and now gets one of the softest defensive matchups in the league.
Since trading away starting center Daniel Gafford, the Wizards are a bottom-10 defense in the restricted area, paint and above the break. Meanwhile, since Hendricks returned to the Jazz rotation, 69.1% of his field goal attempts have come from those three zones. In a home game with a high total, he should be the roleplayer with the best chance to have a spike game and assuming a median outcome of 28 minutes, we project him for 11.0 points in this spot, making this bet a smash at the current line.
Tyus Jones (WAS) Over 2.5 first-quarter points (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
We are staying in the same game but heading to a market that is gamescript-proof. On the season, Tyus Jones has averaged 3.6 points per 8 minutes in the first quarter but only 2.2 points per 8 minutes since Jordan Poole was moved to the bench. However, this cold streak consists of noise that should eventually correct itself — in this span, Jones has posted just 20.0% from three and it included tough matchups against elite defenses such as the Thunder, Cavaliers, Warriors and Clippers.
The Jazz are nowhere near as dangerous as a defensive unit as those squads. On the season, they are a bottom-5 defense in the paint and the worst defense against above-the-break threes in the first quarter, and the numbers are eerily similar since they re-aligned their lineup on February 12. In this spot, we project Jones for 3.5 points in the first quarter and this line is achievable on just one shot for the starting point guard of the Wizards.
Check out our Clippers vs Bucks Same Game Parlay at +488 odds for tonight’s huge NBA matchup
