Germantas Kneita
The NBA begins the new week with a 7-game slate on Monday. The battle for the automatic playoff spots is really starting to heat up in the Western Conference. There is just half a game between the 6th seed and the 10th, with all of the teams battling to avoid the play-in tournament. The Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors are both in the mix and will be in action tonight. You can find out our NBA picks for all of tonight’s hottest matchups, but for now, let’s break down my best NBA player prop bets for today.
Jonas Valanciunas (SAC) over 13.5 points (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With Domantas Sabonis going down with a hamstring injury, Jonas Valanciunas was thrust into a major role in the last Sacramento Kings game against the Houston Rockets. He delivered results, managing 15 points on 70% shooting. It marked his 2nd straight game with 15 points and looks set to keep that run going against the Dallas Mavericks. He has already taken them on once this season as a member of the Kings, managing 13 points in 18 minutes of action. If he pushes close to the 30 minutes of playing time he had in his last outing, he should be set to exceed that here.
Over the last 10 games, the Mavericks are bottom of the league in opponent paint points per game. It is something Valanciunas should be able to take advantage of. He will be matched up against Moses Brown and Dwight Powell, both being centers he should have success pushing about in the paint. Brown can be prone to foul trouble as seen by his 5 fouls in 22 minutes in his last game against the Milwaukee Bucks. With the Kings center making 88% of his free-throw attempts this season, Valanciunas could also use this to inflate scoring numbers.
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Davion Mitchell (MIA) over 9.5 points (+100)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
Davion Mitchell has started to carve out a major role for himself on the Miami Heat. He has now played at least 37 minutes in each of his last 3 games. He has rewarded the trust Erik Spoelstra has placed in him with terrific shooting, making 8 of his last 11 three-point attempts in those games. It has helped him hit double-digit points in each of those contests. In his 9 games since joining the Heat, Mitchell is averaging 10.1 points per game on 53.8% shooting from the field.
The Wizards should prove a favorable opponent tonight. Over the last 10 games, the visitors are 19th in defensive rating and in the top half of the league in pace. It should help ensure there are no shortage of opportunities for Mitchell here. During that stretch of games, they are also 23rd in opponent three-point percentage, which is something the Heat guard should exploit on current form. I expect Mitchell to reach double-digit points here.
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