Ahaan Rungta
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We are just a few weeks away from the finishing touches to the NBA regular season. Games are getting bigger as the battle for playoff seeding and to even reach the postseason is getting more intense. I’m now 41-32 for a +7.2% ROI on the season with my best NBA player prop bets in this article series. Here are my favorite 2 picks for today’s action on Monday, March 25. You can also read our NBA picks for tonight’s hottest matchups.
Kristaps Porzingis (BOS) Under 19.5 points (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The NBA-leading Boston Celtics visit the Atlanta Hawks today. For starters, Jrue Holiday remains out of the Celtics lineup but the remainder of the Celtics core is healthy. When Kristaps Porzingis starts alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown with Holiday out, he averages 21.5 points per 30 minutes but the handicap to this prop is two-fold. First, this is not the best matchup for Porzingis to be a top priority on offense. The Hawks are very shorthanded and most notably without Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, but that’s better news for higher-usage players like Tatum, Brown and even Derrick White. Over their last 10 games, most of which have been without Johnson in the lineup, the Hawks are one of the worst defenses in the league at the rim and against corner threes but a well above-average defense in the paint, midrange, above-the-break and against catch-and-shoot twos. That is exactly Porzingis’ game.
Second, the game spread is set at 10.5 points and with Boston’s depth healthy in this one, look for them to load-manage Porzingis if this game gets out of hand as they have all season long, keeping him well below 30 minutes if they are not in dire need of his services. In this matchup, our 30-minute projection for Porzingis is 18.5 points but the edge added by an unfavorable gamescript and the line discrepancy with this being at 18.5 on most other books makes this prop a smash play.
Read our full Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks predictions
P.J. Washington (DAL) Over 1.5 threes made (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Dallas Mavericks head out West to visit the Utah Jazz tonight and we look for a bounceback from one of the coldest players in the NBA. Although P.J. Washington is regularly failing to hit this line as a starter for Dallas, it is not due to lack of opportunity. He averages 5.0 three-point attempts per 30 minutes when he starts alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. In that span, he is the leader of the team and among league leaders in wide-open three-point attempts. Additionally, Washington leads the team in catch-and-shoot three-point attempts and, overall, 66.1% of his attempts come from above the break.
Over their last 15 games, the Jazz have allowed the most catch-and-shoot three-pointers made on the fourth-highest frequency and the most above-the-break three-point makes and attempts. Although there is fear of a blowout in this matchup, these two teams faced each other a few days ago and despite it resulting in a blowout, Washington recorded 33 minutes and got off four attempts from deep. Tonight, we project him for 5.25 attempts and normalizing for an average shooting day for him, we project 1.60 makes; that makes this prop great value at plus-money odds.
Start the new week with our NBA mega parlay for tonight at + 1002 odds
