Ahaan Rungta
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We have a good-looking 12-game slate in the NBA on Monday night before a quiet slate in the association on Election Day. It is time to navigate uncertain situations and find value in the betting market. These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, November 6, and make sure you also read our NBA picks for every matchup tonight.
Keldon Johnson (SAS) under 20.5 points (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The San Antonio Spurs have played in some wild games this season, including an overtime loss yesterday at home. Now, they have to travel and face an Indiana Pacers defense that has done some things well and some things poorly. Regardless, given the inconsistent volume and efficiency, this number on Keldon Johnson is too high.
Johnson has stayed under this line in 4 of 6 games so far this season and with Devin Vassell unlikely to play, he now draws some of Indiana’s best on-ball defensive weapons, such as Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin. Although it is possible new top option Victor Wembanyama could be matchup-proof and situation-proof, you can’t say the same about Johnson, who stayed under this line in 4 of his 7 games on zero days rest last season despite being the #1 scoring option. A majority of his field goals this season have come from shooting threes in the above-the-break area but the Pacers have allowed the 7th-fewest makes from that zone this season. Add in the potential for a blowout with this 8.5-point spread and you have plenty of reasons to fade the 24-year-old guard.
Read our full San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers predictions
Kristaps Porzingis (BOS) over 1.5 threes made (-135)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1.25u wager.
The Unicorn has gone three straight games without clearing this number but two of those games involved super-blowouts where he was limited to less than 30 minutes. It is time to buy low against the lazy drop coverage played by Timberwolves big men Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert.
This season, Minnesota has allowed the 11th-most above-the-break three-point attempts, which is where Porzingis should reside as he looks to avoid the rim protection of Gobert. Porzingis has averaged 6.3 attempts per game from deep in his career against Gobert and we could get similar volume tonight as top option wing defenders Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels have their work cut out for them manning Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Porzingis could see that type of volume tonight again. The Boston Celtics are the only undefeated team left in the league, but they are still only 4-point favorites in Minnesota tonight, a team that played Boston tough in their last meeting in Target Center last year. It could be yet another closely-contested ballgame and that should be enough for Porzingis to go back to chucking threes all game like he did in the first two games of the season when he attempted 15 threes, making this prop on the shooting big a strong play.
Find out our NBA mega parlay for tonight at +800 odds
