Ahaan Rungta
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After an eventful weekend in the association, we are back with an 8-game slate on Monday night and it’s time to find mispriced lines and take advantage. Let’s get into my two favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, November 20, and make sure you also read our NBA picks for each of tonight’s matchups.
James Harden (LAC) under 17.5 points (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The trade for James Harden has already drawn criticism to the Los Angeles Clippers; it took till their last game in the In-Season Tournament to finally win a game with their new-look roster and did so on a Harden game-winner. The veteran guard has now cleared 20 points in back-to-back games but stayed under this in his first 4 games with the Clippers. This is a spot for negative regression in both efficiency and usage.
San Antonio is retooling their franchise but they do have some individual strengths on defense, particularly with starting guard Jeremy Sochan and the rim protection of their rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama. On the season, the Spurs have an above-average defense in the paint and mid-range zones, which means that Harden will need to have it clicking from three to clear this line in a 3rd straight game. However, the Spurs have often been burned by off-ball shooters and Ty Lue’s squad has plenty of such weapons. In two games against the Spurs last season, Harden scored 12 points on 1-6 shooting from deep and 16 points on 2-5 shooting from deep. Gregg Popovich’s scheme prefers to limit his rhythm in isolation and we should expect more of the same tonight. To top it all off, the Clippers are favored by a mighty 8.5 points and a blowout would be an alarming reason to keep Harden’s minutes at bay, opening the door to another route for the under to cash.
Read our full LA Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs predictions
Brandon Ingram (NOP) over 5.5 assists (-125)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been a rollercoaster since they lost C.J. McCollum. In that seven-game span, they’ve been involved in all kinds of gamescripts but it is clear that Brandon Ingram is the top playmaker as he leads the team in potential assists (12.3). Although he is only converting those into 5.7 assists per game, Monday night provides a good spot for positive regression.
This season, the Kings have allowed the 9th-most assists per game. In the 2 non-blowout games where Ingram and Zion Williamson have played together with McCollum out, Ingram posted 5 and 8 assists; the spread today is just 1 point, so the likelihood of a blowout is small. In this spot, his line should be 6.5, not 5.5. Let’s take advantage.
Start the new week with our expert’s NBA mega parlay at +716 odds!
