Ahaan Rungta
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It’s only a 4-game slate on Monday night on the eve of a packed In-Season Tournament menu; there isn’t much action to be confident about, but I have still identified 1 spot with value. This is my favorite NBA player prop bet for Monday, November 13.
Zach LaVine, CHI, Under 23.5 points (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Trusting the defense of the new-look Milwaukee Bucks can be a scary proposition; they rank #25 in defensive rating this season and have already gotten involved in multiple shootouts. However, their weaknesses don’t exactly align with the role and strong suits of Zach LaVine. Plus this line is just too high.
The Bucks have allowed the most mid-range field goals made per game, but that sets up a favorable spot for DeMar DeRozan of the Chicago Bulls. Where Milwaukee thrives is in protecting close-range shots, it has allowed the seventh-fewest field goals made per game and third-fewest attempts per game in the restricted area thanks to the rim protection of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. That’s bad news for LaVine, who leads the team in restricted area field goals attempted per game and primarily relies on those layups and above-the-break 3s for scoring.
Overall on the season, he has stayed under this line in 7 of 10 games. Two of the misses were a 24-point performance against the re-tooling Jazz and a 24-point effort against a Nets team that had no available centers to start. My projection for LaVine would be 21.5 points, and there’s no guarantee he will even get that many given the potential for another classic NBA blowout with this 9.5-point spread. Let’s fade the former all-star.
