Ahaan Rungta
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We have an 8-game slate in the association tonight and it is time to find the best spots for betting value in the player prop department. I am now 28-15 for a +24.7% ROI on the season with player props in this article series.
These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, January 22.
Julian Champagnie, SG, SAS, Under 7.5 points (-108)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Let’s get the night started with a sweaty one; Spurs role player Julian Champagnie is a pure 3-point specialist. On the season, 58.7% of his field-goal attempts have come from deep. Although he has gone over this line in 5 of his last 6 games, it is due to a stellar 43.3% clip on 3-pointers, mostly against 3-point funnel defenses.
Overall he averages 8.7 points per 25 minutes in starts alongside Victor Wembanyama, but now he draws a 76ers matchup that leaves him in his toughest spot all season long. Philadelphia has been the #1 defense in the NBA this season against spot-up shooting, and in January — with De’Anthony Melton absent for most of their games — they are still a top-5 defense in restricted 3-pointers. In addition to all of this, Philadelphia’s size and skill on offense could leave Champagnie as the odd man out in San Antonio’s rotation. He could struggle to even find the floor for 25 minutes as he has already stayed below that mark in 12 of his 15 starts this season. It is time to sell high.
Read our full San Antonio Spurs vs Philadelphia 76ers predictions
RJ Barrett, SF, TOR, Over 1.5 threes made (+108)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This is an extreme buy-low spot. Raptors new starter RJ Barrett has failed to hit this line in 5 straight games, but it’s not due to lack of volume — rather, a 16.7% shooting clip from deep. NBA players do not stay in slumps forever and in tonight’s spot I project him for plenty of volume. On the season, the Grizzlies have given up the eighth-most made 3s per game. Since losing Marcus Smart again over the last 5games, they have allowed heavy-duty shooting games to shooting guards and forwards. In that span, Paul George went 7-10, Donte DiVincenzo went 3-11, Dario Šarić went 3-5 and Patrick Williams went 3-7 from deep.
In his 4 games with Toronto without Pascal Siakam in the lineup, Barrett has averaged 1.5 makes on 3.9 attempts from 3 per 30 minutes — which should be his floor even in a blowout scenario. Given the matchup, this buy should not be plus money.
Start the new week by checking out our NBA mega parlay for tonight at +1248 odds!
Harrison Barnes, SG, SAC, Over 8.5 points (-115)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This is another buy-low on a streaky player. Harrison Barnes has failed to hit this line in 5 of his last 6 games but when he is in the game he is still getting volume and the only real concern all season has been minutes. In a matchup against a Hawks team with several talented scoring wings, it would be difficult to see Barnes lose his spot in the starting lineup or get fewer than 25 minutes. Add in the sky-high Vegas total of 237.5 and this is a pace-up spot.
On the season, Barnes averages 9.2 points per 25 minutes when the Kings’ top 2 options — De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis — both start. Additionally, 47.3% of his field-goal attempts come from either the restricted area or via corner 3s and he leads the team in attempts from the corner. Since losing De’Andre Hunter due to injury, the Hawks are the worst defense in the NBA in both of those zones.
Let’s buy the dip on a big night from the veteran.
Read our full Atlanta Hawks vs Sacramento Kings predictions
