Germantas Kneita
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Despite last night being dominated by the NFL, the NBA still showed us it’s A-game, with 3 games going down to the wire and being decided by 5 points or less. Tonight should be more of the same. We will see 2 of the top teams in the Western Conference collide as the Memphis Grizzlies take on the Houston Rockets, while both Los Angeles teams are expected to return to action with the Lakers hosting the Spurs on NBA TV. You can find out our NBA picks for tonight’s big games, but for now, let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bets for Monday, January 13.
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) under 13.5 points (-115)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
The Los Angeles Clippers have been incredibly careful with Kawhi Leonard on his return. He has not surpassed more than 21 minutes in either of his 2 contests and that is unlikely to change tonight against the Miami Heat. The Under on this points line has come in on both of his games so far, as he has combined for just 20 points over the 2 games. Leonard is shooting just 31.8% from the field and has attempted just 3 free throws in total. Nearly half of his attempts are from beyond the arc, so he seems to be cautious in attacking the rim so far. The Heat are 26th in pace over the last 10 games and 5th in defensive rating. That is not a combination of factors that would suggest we see a breakout game from Leonard here.
Jonas Valanciunas (WSH) over 9.5 points (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Washington Wizards have been getting a steady bench contribution from Jonas Valanciunas this season. Over the last 10 games, the Lithuanian is averaging 12.2 points per game and should be well positioned to continue that against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. He will spend time matched up against Naz Reid, someone he will have a size advantage in the post over.
Over the last 10 games, the Timberwolves are 25th in the league in opponent second-chance points per game. It is something Valanciunas should take full advantage of here considering he is one of 5 players in the top 30 in the league in offensive rebounds per game who averages under 20 minutes of playing time. With players like Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle attacking the rim, do not be surprised to see rookie Alex Sarr get in foul trouble, which could boost the playing time for Valanciunas further. He has a great chance of hitting this tonight.
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Moses Moody (GS) over 1.5 made threes (+125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Moses Moody has been a steady contributor from beyond the arc for the Golden State Warriors this season. He has been making 39% of his three-pointers, but that is on the rise too. To start 2025, he is making 47.8% across 5 games, knocking down 2.2 threes per game in the process. His opponents tonight should be perfect for Moody to showcase his capabilities. Over the last 10 games, the Toronto Raptors are dead last in opponent three-point percentage, allowing teams to make 43.3% of their attempts. It has meant they have allowed 17.6 per game, also the most in the league.
This game also has the potential to be a blowout, with the Raptors bottom in defensive rating over the last 10 games. Moody averages just over 16 minutes per game. However, the last 4 games in which he managed over 20 minutes of playing time were all decided by 10 points or more. We could see the same being the case here. It should give him more than enough time to knock down a couple of three-pointers, especially considering how efficient he has been of late.
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