Ahaan Rungta
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We are just a few days away from the finishing touches to the NBA regular season. I’m now 45-34 for a +8.8% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series. Here are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for Friday, April 5, but you can also see our NBA picks for tonight’s HUGE 12-game slate.
Gary Harris (ORL) over 1.5 threes made (+102)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Orlando Magic are in a fierce battle for seeding in the Eastern Conference and they are streaking right now entering a road matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. We are getting a discount on a roleplayer with this prop because of a recent low hit rate but this price is too cheap given the matchup.
Since Gary Harris was re-inserted into the Magic starting lineup, he has let it fly, averaging 1.68 makes on 3.79 attempts per 25 minutes from deep. Although the minutes have been a wild card for him, much of that has been due to foul trouble and some of it has been due to cold starts offensively. If Harris can hit one early here, he gets a dream matchup to get us home on this line rather quickly. Over their last 15 games, the Hornets’ defense has allowed the 7th-most corner threes made and the 4th-most catch-and-shoot threes made on the 2nd-highest shot frequency. Over Orlando’s last 15 games, Harris leads the team in corner three attempts and in that span, and 86.5% of his three-point attempts are of the catch-and-shoot variety.
Harris is the rare roleplayer whose shooting splits see a spike on the road and in this contest, we project him for 4.5 attempts and 1.7 makes; this price is playable up to -120 price.
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Kevin Durant (PHX) under 2.5 threes made (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Phoenix Suns are playing well at the best possible time and have exploded offensively in back-to-back games; however, the main storyline has been Devin Booker scoring 92 points in those 2 games and it should be more of the same usage for Phoenix on Friday as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves.
With Kevin Durant playing as a secondary option these days, this is not a great matchup for him to make it rain from deep. Over their last 15 games, Minnesota’s defense has allowed the 8th-fewest threes made from above the break and the 5th-fewest catch-and-shoot threes made on the 6th-lowest shot frequency. Over Phoenix’s last 15 games, 82.3% of Durant’s three-point attempts have come from above the break and 72.6% of his three-point attempts have been of the catch-and-shoot variety.
Since the return of Bradley Beal on March 2, Durant is averaging 2.34 makes on 5.81 attempts per 36 minutes from deep when he plays alongside Beal and Booker, and in his 2 previous matchups against the Timberwolves’ staunch perimeter defense, he went 2-for-4 and 2-for-2 from three. In this brutal matchup on Friday, we project 5.0 attempts and 2.0 makes from deep; this line is too high and the under is playable up to a -125 price.
