Ahaan Rungta
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We reach the final day of the NBA season before official playoff action as #8 seeds are on the line in today’s NBA Play-In Tournament games. Despite just 2 games to work with on the hardwood board, we have found betting value for you to snag before the lines get stale. This season, I am 50-34 for a +14.1% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series. You can find out our NBA picks for each of tonight’s matchups, but for now, let’s get into my 3 best NBA player prop bets for Friday, April 19.
Haywood Highsmith (MIA) Over 1.5 threes made (+176)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Although the Miami Heat have suspect rotations due to their depth that could make a prop like this volatile, this is simply an egregious price given the situation. With superstar Jimmy Butler already ruled out, the elite isolation defense of Haywood Highsmith will be an absolute necessity in this elimination game to handle the offensive firepower brought by Coby White and DeMar DeRozan. With Terry Rozier also ruled out for this game, Miami doesn’t have much of a choice but to give Highsmith high-leverage minutes for his potential to be an impact player on both ends of the floor.
This season, in games where Rozier and Butler are not playing but Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are both starting, Highsmith has averaged 1.53 threes made on 3.33 attempts per 20 minutes overall and is a significantly better shooter overall at home. Now, he faces a Chicago Bulls defense that will willingly leave him open. Over their last 15 games, the Bulls have allowed the 4th-most catch-and-shoot threes made on the highest such shot frequency in the NBA. In this matchup, we project 3.50 attempts and 1.40 attempts; this line should barely be plus-money, not the price we are getting. It is playable down to +130.
Read our full Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat predictions
Coby White (CHI) Under 20.5 points (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
An NBA Most Improved Player Award candidate, Coby White has blossomed into a star in the absence of Zach LaVine and has become the best scoring threat on the Chicago Bulls. That makes this prop scary but clearly a tad high and the right play against Erik Spoelstra’s defensive scheme.
Even though the Heat will be without Butler, they are still deep and continue to shut down opposing #1 options when they have a majority of their defensive weapons available. In this matchup, White will not only see elite one-on-one defenders in Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith and Delon Wright but will also see blitzes from the Heat to get the ball away from him and into the hands of the Bulls’ banged-up roleplayers. This is a much better matchup for DeMar DeRozan, who can take advantage of Miami’s inferior defenders in the post and will see fewer double teams at the perimeter. DeRozan has the ability and confidence to take over if White struggles so the volume is no guarantee for the Bulls’ young point guard.
Since LaVine’s season-ending injury in late January, White has averaged 20.7 points per 40 minutes alongside DeRozan. However, in this tough matchup, accounting for the fact that NBA officiating has veered toward allowing physicality, White matching his average would require elite efficiency on what we expect will be limited volume. Even assuming a 40-minute lion’s share of playing time, we project White for 19.0 points; this prop is playable at this number to a -125 price.
You can also check out our Bulls vs Heat Same Game Parlay picks at HUGE +1613 odds
Domantas Sabonis (SAC) Over 18.5 points (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Western Conference play-in game will feature a matchup between teams very familiar with each other and a buy-low for the ages in Domantas Sabonis. Although Sabonis has failed to hit this line in 7 of his last 8 games, that sample size is skewed by tough matchups for his skill set, including the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors.
The New Orleans Pelicans provide a bounce-back opportunity, especially with superstar Zion Williamson and his paint presence ruled out for the game. On the season, New Orleans already ranks bottom-10 as a points-per-possession defense against pick-and-roll ball-handlers, and with elite isolation defender Herbert Jones preoccupied with duties of guarding De’Aaron Fox, this opens up easy opportunities at the rim for the Kings’ starting center.
Sabonis already averages 19.8 points per 36 minutes this season and in 2 matchups against the Pelicans with Jonas Valančiūnas starting and Larry Nance Jr. available off the bench, Sabonis made his presence felt as a scorer both times, recording 23 points in 36 minutes and 17 points in 29 minutes. With Vegas setting a one-point spread for this contest, it is highly unlikely that either team is going to run away with this game early enough for starters to not get full minutes facing elimination. In this spot, we project Sabonis for 36 minutes and 21.0 points; this prop is playable up to 19.5 at pick ‘em price.
Read our full Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions
