Ahaan Rungta
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We are entering the final weekend of the NBA regular season with about half the league still having something to play for. The author is now 47-34 for a +11.2% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. This is his favorite NBA player prop bet for Friday, April 12.
Herbert Jones (NOP) Over 0.5 blocks (-110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
On a slate where not every team has something tangible to play for, we are going after a prop in a game where both teams have high stakes on the line. The Golden State Warriors are looking to get out of the 9-10 play-in game and the Pelicans are looking to avoid the play-in tournament completely. Indeed, we see a four-point spread in Golden State tonight and despite the travel involved on the second leg of a back to back, we expect heavy minutes for the New Orleans starters, particularly their best defensive player in Herbert Jones.
In games this season with Zion Williamson playing and Brandon Ingram ruled out, Jones is averaging 0.54 blocks per 33 minutes. Over their last 15 games, the Warriors have allowed the 12th-most blocks overall. Although it may be unintuitive to target blocks against an offense so happy with the jump shot, it is also worth noting that Jones is in an elite club of players capable of blocking jumpers. In fact, this season, 16.4% of his blocks have come from above the break threes alone, where the Warriors remain among league leaders in volume.
In this spot, we project Jones for 35 minutes and 0.75 blocks, making this prop playable down to -120 price.
