Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
The NBA is officially underway, and just a few games in we are already dealing with injuries. Now it is time to tackle the first slate of the NBA In-Season Tournament. We must navigate the tricky situations and find betting spots of value, and I have done done just that here.
These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Friday, November 3.
Brook Lopez, MIL, Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+120)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Milwaukee Bucks are off to a mediocre start with their new-look roster, but Brook Lopez remains a key piece of their starting lineup. Although he has gone 12.5% from deep over his last 2 games and he is getting volume regardless of matchup, attempting at least 4 triples in every single game so far. Now he faces a New York Knicks drop coverage that should get him wide-open shots at will to support Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Although New York starting center Mitchell Robinson is an elite rim protector and rebounder, he is lacking in mobility and isn’t shy leaving opposing bigs open on jumpers. The only opposing starting center with a shooting mentality against the Knicks this season has been Kristaps Porzingis, who went 5-for-9. We are getting great value at plus money for one of the league’s best big-man shooters to hit at least 2 from the land of plenty on Friday.
Kyle Kuzma, WAS, Under 21.5 points (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
I’m bringing back an old but effective strategy: fade top options against a healthy Miami Heat starting lineup. The Heat are 1-4 and need to get back on track if they are to return to the Eastern Conference playoffs for another potential deep run.
Kyle Kuzma’s usage has been high this season and he is still the Wizards’ best scorer even with their new-look roster. Despite the high volume he has cleared this line in only 2 of his 4 games. Now he gets a Heat defense that remains strong under head coach Erik Spoelstra even through they have struggled so far in 2023-24. When Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both starting, which should be the case on Friday, it is easier for Miami to force the ball out of the hands of top options. In their last 2 games in this scenario, Boston’s Jayson Tatum scored just 22 points in 41 minutes and Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges went for only 21 in 31 minutes.
It makes sense to fade Kuzma tonight even if this game remains close for 4 quarters. But given that the Heat are nearly double-digit favorites, a blowout is certainly not out of the question and that is another reason to promote betting an under.
