Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
After a quiet night with two games on Thursday, it is a packed 11-game In-Season Tournament menu on Friday night, and it’s time to find mispriced lines and take advantage. These are my two favorite NBA player prop bets for Friday, November 17, and make sure to check out all of our NBA picks.
Victor Wembanyama (SAS) Over 18.5 Points (-115)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The NBA Rookie of the Year frontrunner has cleared this line in only four of his 11 games so far and has stayed under in each of his last two, but not all spots are created equal, and tonight, we get a buy-low in a soft matchup. His four lowest-scoring performances came in the four games where San Antonio lost by more than twenty points. Another one of his misses came against the defensive juggernaut Miami Heat. On Friday night, the Spurs will be short-handed in the scoring department with Devin Vassell already ruled out and Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones listed as questionable. Even if Johnson and Jones play, this line is too low.
Wembanyama has played in two games this season with Devin Vassell; in one game, he scored 20, and in the other game, he scored 13 points in just 21 minutes while going 3-12 from the field. His matchup tonight, the Sacramento Kings, are one of the easier spots he’ll have this season. Although Sacramento’s offensive prowess is scary and the potential for blowout is valid, they also do not have the tools to counter Wembanyama’s game. The 19-year-old is a three-level scorer, who has spread out his shot chart this season pretty evenly between at-the-basket (restricted area and paint), mid-range, and above-the-break threes.
This season, the Kings have allowed the most paint field goals made per game, the fifth-most mid-range field goals made per game, and the eleventh-highest above-the-break threes made per game. My projection in this game for Wembanyama is 20.0 points in 30 minutes, and if the game does get close in this high-stakes in-season tournament environment, he has potential for much more.
Check out our Sacremento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs predictions
Aaron Gordon (DEN) Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-138)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1.50u wager.
Paying juice on a player prop may look scary, but the reality is this line is still mispriced and might not close at the above number. Since last season, Aaron Gordon has cleared this line in 11 of his 12 games without Jamal Murray; the one miss was a game where he went 0-6 from three on the road against the Warriors. There isn’t reason to believe tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans will be a particularly challenging one.
New Orleans starting guard CJ McCollum has been inactive due to a health issue over the last five games, and in that span, the new-rotation Pelicans have allowed the 13th-most field goals made per game in the restricted area and the 10th-most above-the-break threes made per game (on the third-highest volume). Those two zones combine for 73% of Gordon’s attempts this season. As for the rebounding profile, here are how recent players with an average rebound distance similar to Gordon’s 8.8 feet performed against the Pelicans (minimum 29 minutes):
- Kyrie Irving: 6 rebounds in 29 minutes
- Anthony Edwards: 3 rebounds in 33 minutes (Rudy Gobert hogged an outlier 21 rebounds)
- Aaron Gordon himself: 12 rebounds in 36 minutes
The veteran dunk maestro cleared this line with ease in these teams’ previous meeting a couple of weeks ago, and it should be more of the same tonight in New Orleans. My projection in this game for Gordon is 24.5 points+rebounds in 33 minutes, making this “over” a strong play.
Don’t miss our NBA mega parlay (+792!)
