Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
Friday night in the NBA and we have an 8-pack of games ahead of us; order a pizza and find your favorite spot on the couch this evening. The best game of the night is a potential playoff preview, as the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. In the first matchup this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to a modest 20 points in a rare dud from him. Let’s see if that translates to some redemption from him.
Another game I have my eye on is Cavaliers vs Bucks, as we all anxiously await Doc Rivers to make his coaching debut for Milwaukee.
RJ Barrett, SF, TOR, Over 3.5 assists (+105 at Bet365)
1u on Over 3.5, 0.5u on 6+ (+490) and 0.1u on 7+ (+750)
Barrett is averaging 0.1 assists per min as a member of the Raptors with a median min output of 35.5 minutes, giving us a baseline projection of 3.6 assists. What puts us over the edge is that Immanuel Quickley is out tonight and Barrett is seeing +5.16 assists per 100 possessions with IQ off the floor. At 35.5 minutes, that’s an additional 3.75 assists added to his baseline — which is not realistic but does get above that 3.5 mark with conviction.
It’s a tough matchup for him tonight in the scoring column against the Clippers, as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will make it hard for him to attack the rim and shoot from the midrange. That will give Barrett more reason to drive and kick. Of his assists, 31% lead to Above the Break threes — which the Clippers are in the middle of the pack in January defending (15th-most makes, 4th-worst shooting %). In 3 games against LAC this season, Barrett has had 4 or more in 2 of 3. I wouldn’t go much higher than the 7+ that Bet365 offers us, as his season high is 6 and his career high is 9 (rookie season).
