Ahaan Rungta
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We have an 8-game slate in the association tonight and it is time to find the best spots for betting value in the player prop department. I am now 26-15 for a +21.6% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Friday, January 19. You can also read our NBA picks for tonight’s individual games.
Devin Vassell, SG, SA, Over 1.5 turnovers (-117)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The San Antonio Spurs have listed franchise cornerstone Victor Wembanyma as out for tonight’s game. Still, a matchup against the Charlotte Hornets could result in a close, high-pace affair — as suggested by the Vegas spread (4.5 points) and total (235.5). That means a lot of minutes and high usage for San Antonio’s best offensive options, such as Devin Vassell. On the season he averages 1.5 turnovers per 33 minutes but now draws a Charlotte squad that starts several defenders with active hands.
Over their last 15 games, the Hornets have forced the 10th-most turnovers per game overall. Last season when these teams faced off, Vassell recorded 2 turnovers in just 29 minutes. This prop should not be priced as basically a pick ‘em, so let’s take advantage.
Tyler Herro, SG, MIA, Over 22.5 points (-115)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Miami Heat starting guard Tyler Herro has stayed under this line in 2 of his last 3 games, making this a buy-low spot. With the Atlanta Hawks down multiple defensive bodies, they simply do not have the facilities to defend Miami’s full starting 5 with ease. Defensive stopper Jalen Johnson will have his efforts focused on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, while Herro will get a chance to expose the defense of Trae Young at the perimeter or in the pick-and-roll against Clint Capela.
Since the New Year, the Hawks have allowed the most field goals made per game at the rim and are a below-average 3-point defense. That’s where Herro can do most of his cooking, and he already averages 22.6 points per 33 minutes alongside Butler this season. The primary concern here could be a potential Miami blowout, as it is favored by 6.5 points. However, if the Heat do moonwalk into a win here, it is likely because Herro was effective as a scorer — since he has cleared this line in 5 of 7 games in which his team has won by at least 7 points.
