Ahaan Rungta
After a small slate of action in the association scarred with blowouts, we get a full menu tonight and a plethora of options from which we can sieve betting value. These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Friday, January 12.
Paolo Banchero, PF, ORL, Over 5.5 assists (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Orlando Magic hit the road to face the Miami Heat tonight in an attempt at revenge but they will list Wendell Carter Jr. as questionable and Gary Harris and Franz Wagner as out. In a small sample size without Wagner, the Magic phenom Paolo Banchero has averaged 5.4 assists per 36 minutes but now gets a matchup where he will be forced into a facilitator role.
The Heat defense, run by Erik Spoelstra’s mastermind game-planning, will focus all their attention in stopping Magic phenom Paolo Banchero. With the Heat’s 2 best defensive players — Bam Adebayo and Haywood Highsmith — both active, that will make the job even easier for Miami to get the ball out of the hands of Banchero. That includes blitzes at the top of the key and hard closes on drives. This season, over 43% of Banchero’s assists have been via the 3-ball and Miami has been a below-average defense against 3-pointers this season.
Top offensive options this season when facing a Heat team with both Adebayo and Highsmith:
- Trae Young: 11 assists
- Paolo Banchero: 8 assists
- Trae Young: 13 assists
- Stephen Curry: 5 assists
- Fred VanVleet: 7 assists, Jalen Green: 6 assists
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 8 assists
Kawhi Leonard, SF, LAC, 1Q Over 1.5 rebounds (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
A first-quarter sweat to get the juices flowing on tonight’s NBA slate never hurt anybody. This one is an extreme buy-low following 3 straight games failing to clear this line. The Klaw has been good for anywhere between 9 to 12 first-quarter minutes in almost every game this season and with Paul George and James Harden in the lineup, he has averaged 1.2 rebounds per 9 minutes in the first quarter this season.
Now he faces a Memphis team that is without its best player, Ja Morant, and starting shooting guard Marcus Smart — potentially creating rebounding opportunities more early and often than usual. Forwards with rebound distance similar to Leonard this season have cleared this line in almost every single game in which Morant and Smart did not play. Buy regression back to the mean and back Leonard in the first quarter tonight.
