Ahaan Rungta
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We enter the meat of the NBA Conference Finals as the Timberwolves looks to tie up the series with the Mavericks 1-1 at home after losing outright as a favorite in the Western Conference Finals opener, and it is time to exploit the player prop market once again. This season, I am 62-42 for a +14.4% ROI on the season with NBA player prop bets in this article series. Here are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Game 2 between the Dallas Mavericks and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Read our full Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 2 predictions
Luka Doncic (DAL) Over 6.5 1st quarter points (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1.25u wager.
In Game 1 of this series, Luka Doncic showed why he is on a Hall of Fame path by cooking in clutch time against the league’s best defense to lead his team to a victory. The MVP candidate finished the game with 33 points while seeing some of the most tortuous defense the NBA has to offer in Jaden McDaniels. However, this was after a relatively rough start as he failed to clear this line in the first quarter.
This is a great buy-low spot. For starters, Kyrie Irving was in takeover mode in Game 1 as he looked to attack youngster Anthony Edwards following some controversial pre-game remarks. Despite Irving looking like the first option early, Doncic still managed to log 6 field-goal attempts in his standard 9 minutes of action. However, the efficiency was not there as both of Doncic’s three-point attempts were misses, despite one being annotated as open and the other as wide open by NBA Stats. Some positive regression is expected here for one of the game’s best players and this line feels too low.
Doncic has posted at least 9 first-quarter minutes in all but one 2024 postseason game so far. Since the Mavericks re-arranged their lineup permanently on March 7, Doncic has averaged 8.8 points per 9 minutes in the first quarter. Despite the relatively tough matchup, this line is a steal at even-money and playable up to a -130 price.
You can get the best odds on this Luka Doncic player prop bet over at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,500, as well as a no-sweat Same Game Parlay for every day of the NBA playoffs! Click here to join DraftKings now.
Anthony Edwards (MIN) Over 3.5 turnovers (+140)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.75u wager.
Although it may be scary to fade one of the game’s best rising stars in the playoffs, this is a tremendous spot to buy low on a prop that is mispriced. Although Anthony Edwards has shown superstar potential during the Timberwolves’ playoff run, he has also had his fair share of blunders with defenses looking to prioritize pressure on his ball-handling and shot-making.
The Dallas Mavericks’ defense has been locked in during the playoffs. When guarded with single coverage, Edwards will see the established defender P.J. Washington and the red-hot clamps of Derrick Jones Jr., who has been a top-five isolation defender by points per possession during the postseason. When seeing blitzes, he will be forced into tough passes and crowded lanes while driving against one of the best help defense teams in the playoffs. The Mavericks are top-five among playoff teams in loose balls recovered per game and in an environment where officials are willing to allow physicality, Edwards is in a tough spot to protect the ball.
In these playoffs, in competitive games, Edwards seems to be a shoo-in for about 40 minutes of playing time and on the season, when Karl-Anthony Towns is active, Edwards averages 3.53 turnovers per 40 minutes. This line should be closer to a pick ‘em and we are getting a steal of a buy at an implied probability of 41.7%. This prop is playable down to a +120 price.
We cashed our last Mavericks vs Timberwolves Same Game Parlay — now find out tonight’s at +522 odds!
