Ahaan Rungta
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The NBA Finals has survived to live another day as the Dallas Mavericks avoided the sweep at home. The Boston Celtics are now back at home for Game 5, where they are 6.5-point favorites. It has been a tricky series to bet on with the uncertainty of gamescripts and rotations surrounding Jason Kidd’s bench. However, we’re done the work to find the best spots of value in what could be the last game of the 2023-24 NBA season. This season, I am 63-44 for a +13.5% ROI with my NBA player prop picks in this article series. Here are my best NBA player prop bets for Game 5 between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. You can also find out our NBA picks on the side and total for every matchup in the 2024 NBA Finals.
Derrick Jones Jr. (DAL) Over 5.5 points (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This is a prop that has been on our watchlist all series. Although Derrick Jones Jr. has mostly been a non-factor offensively in the NBA playoffs, this line is an overreaction—in the one game where he actively saw involvement in the offense, he cleared his 7.5 points line with ease (Game 2). Boston continues to be a good matchup for him to produce as they struggle defensively in transition and have no qualms leaving him wide open to spot up from deep. This becomes a bet on minutes because if we project for normal playing time, this line should be 8.5.
The only 2 games of the last 3 playoff series where Jones has gotten irregular minutes have been the last 2, giving us a serious buy-low opportunity. In Game 3, Dallas went on their big run with Josh Green in the game and then with Luka Doncic fouling out, they needed some kind of shooting so they tried their hand at Tim Hardaway Jr. That left Jones out of the picture in an anomaly sequence of events. In Game 4, Jones was on pace to see at least 25 minutes but a super-blowout kept most of the starters off the floor completely in the fourth quarter and Jones scored 5 points in his shortened minutes. During these playoffs, Jones averages 7.6 points per 25 minutes and in this spot I expect him to have even higher upside.
Read our full Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Game 5 predictions
Kyrie Irving (DAL) Under 4.5 assists (-118)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
We are fading Boston Kyrie — but not in the way the public may want to. Kyrie Irving’s role and aggression has been quite different in each playoff series during the Mavericks’ run. In this one, it is fairly clear how Kyrie continues to be used and with Porzingis’ rim protection almost certainly out of the picture, it’s even clearer—stay aggressive as a scorer and go at mismatches like Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard and Al Horford.
Regardless of Porzingis’ availability, Boston continues to hedge on the pick-and-roll game and look to take away alley-oop finishes even if that is at the expense of Irving getting short-range jumpers. That’s why he has averaged 24.2 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes in the last 2 games and even though he cleared this line last time, it was on an unsustainably high conversion rate — although he had 6 assists, it was only 8 potential and Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington had to go 3-for-3 from three on his passes. In this series overall, Irving has averaged 4.2 assists on 8.3 potential assists per 40 minutes. Now headed back on the road where Dallas roleplayers lose some efficiency, we are projecting 3.5 assists.
Now see our Mavericks vs Celtics Same Game Parlay picks for Game 5 at +488 odds
