Ahaan Rungta
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We enter the finishing touches of the NBA Conference Finals as the Boston Celtics look for a sweep of the Indiana Pacers without their best player. It is time to look for betting value in the player prop market in a tricky game to project. This season, the author is 63-43 for a +14.6% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are his favorite NBA player prop bets for Game 4 between the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers.
Ben Sheppard (IND) Over 5.5 points (-121)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
With Tyrese Haliburton being rumored as a longshot to play in Game 4, there’s clear value in a guy who started Game 3 in his absence. Although that start may have seemed ineffective as he scored 0 points, the Pacers got off to their huge advantage with him off the floor for many reasons—the spacing he provides, his hard work on the boards, and his improved one-on-one defense. The rookie Ben Sheppard was drafted to be a spot-up shooter but has done a disappearing act in that regard in the Eastern Conference Finals. That makes this low-hanging number a great buy-low.
Whether or not Sheppard has a good start to the game and/or is starting, 25 minutes should be a safe floor for playing time here given the events of the series. Being with Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner in the starting lineup and without Tyrese Haliburton is not unfamiliar territory for the Pacers. In the regular season, Sheppard came off the bench in all those games and averaged 5.7 points per 25 minutes. In his first start in this situation two days ago, he got similar volume again but went 0-for-4 from the field, including 0-for-3 from three. He is now 0-for-9 from deep in this series and all nine attempts have been listed as either open or wide open, per NBA Stats—this makes sense.
Boston’s defense converges on top options and have consistently given up huge shooting nights to roleplayers because they are among leader leaders on the season and in the playoffs in wide open three-point attempts surrendered. Although it might be the nerves of the moment getting to the youngster, it’s mathematically advantageous to buy the dip and bet on some regression to the mean. Given his role and average shooting number, we project 6.75 points in this spot. That makes the listed 5.5 number a good buy and this line playable up to 6.5 if you can get plus-money on your book.
