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I’m looking to continue our mini-run with NBA player props tonight. I’ve cashed 5 of my last 6 prop bets and am turning to reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid tonight in his battle against former MVP Nikola Jokic, as the Denver Nuggets take on the Philadelphia 76ers. Let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bet for Tuesday, January 16. Also, make sure you read our NBA predictions for today’s games.
Joel Embiid, C, PHI, Over 32.5 points (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
If you’re not following me on X, do so now. I put out Joel Embiid Over 32.5 points at -110 early this morning. The line has since moved to 33.5 on most books except BetMGM. If your only option is 33.5, I also like it there, even though the hit rate drops from 57% to 54%. Nonetheless, I expect Embiid to dominate against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
There’s been some noise that the Nuggets will look to sit most of their core tonight. This would give them a 4-day layover with no games played. Either way, Embiid is in for a massive game on national TV. He’ll be playing in his 2nd leg of a back-to-back, as he scored 41 points yesterday in 31 minutes. Playing on zero days rest has not affected Embiid yet this year. His last time out on the 2nd game in two days, he scored 42 points in less than 30 minutes.
If this game does get to blowout territory, we have the luxury of Embiid being near “blowout proof.” As long as he stays out of foul trouble, Embiid’s rotation is playing the whole 1st and 3rd quarter to guarantee he plays at least 27-30 minutes. In the 28 games this season that he played at least 27 minutes in, he’s over this line in 15 of them. As a basketball fan, I’ll have my fingers crossed that Jokic plays. The last time these 2 matched up, Embiid scored 47 points. Regarding centers around the league, the Nuggets rank in the league’s top half in points allowed to the position.
Don’t miss our Nuggets vs 76ers Same Game Parlay for tonight’s matchup at +1021 odds
