JutPicks
The Pickswise prop team is running hot with 5 straight W’s and a record of 6-2 to start April.
Let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bet, while you can also check out our NBA picks for all 4 of today’s games.
Donovan Mitchell, CLE, Over 21.5 points (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Overnight lines can be extremely profitable in the NBA if sportsbooks do not limit you — especially if you find lines mis-priced by particular books. At the time of publishing, DraftKings is offering the over of 21.5 points on Donovan Mitchell priced at -105. FanDuel opened the line at 22.5, priced at -125. That’s excellent value, as 23.5 points is where I expect the rest of the sportsbooks to close this player prop.
It’s well known that Mitchell isn’t fully healthy. He missed extended time with a knee injury last month and even sat out a game already in April. But he played 38 minutes last time out and scored 24 points on 17 field-goal attempts. The Cavaliers also play on Sunday again in Los Angeles, so we’ll see how they handle Mitchell on a back-to-back. Nonetheless, the Lakers are 4.5-point favorites against the Cavaliers. Ideally we get 35 minutes from Mitchell and the same volume he has seen with the Cavaliers starting five healthy.
With just 5 games left to play in the regular season, the Cavaliers have no time to take games off. They sit just 1 game back of the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference, while the Magic and Knicks are just 1 game back of the Cavaliers.
I suggest playing this prop up to 22.5 points at -110. FanDuel looks well on its way to moving this prop to 23.5.
