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We always will stay transparent through the good and bad. Last night did not go as planned. We went 0-2 with James Harden shooting 1/8 from the field and Bam Adebayo taking 10+ shots in the 4th quarter after half the Heat roster was ejected. Let’s dive into the 3-game slate tonight. In addition to that, make sure you read also read our NBA predictions for today’s matchups.
Paolo Banchero, PF, ORL, Under 6.5 assists (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If you’ve been following my picks this season, you know what the criteria is for most of my bets. First, we target unders at a high percentage. Second, finding lines that are inflated due to matchup’s that favor the player we’re fading. In this case, Paolo Banchero has a great matchup in his sights. He’s facing off against the Detroit Pistons who rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency this month. Yet, this number is a tick too high and is a great fade spot.
+EV betting is critical when attacking player prop bets. DraftKings has the under of 6.5 assists priced at -115. The rest of the market has this priced around -125. In the long run, backing +EV spots will turn to profit.
The Magic will be missing Markelle Fultz, which should ultimately ramp up Banchero’s usage. But, the Magic have plenty of guys to make up that usage. Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris will make up the backcourt tonight, while Franz Wagner will do his duty in being aggressive with the ball and scoring at will.
As 8-point favorites against a Pistons team that they’ve handled comfortably twice already this season, I expect much of the same and a chance for Banchero to take a warm seat on the bench in the 4th quarter.
