Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
The 2nd round of the NBA playoffs has arrived, and we have 2 huge matchups to get excited for. The Pacers and Knicks get their series started at Madison Square Garden, while the Nuggets will be looking to get a win on the board after being upset at home by the Timberwolves in Game 1. This season, I am 57-38 for a +14.8% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series. Here are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for today’s matchups, while you can also find out our NBA picks on the side and total.
Pascal Siakam (IND) over 20.5 points (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
After clearing the 30-point mark in the first 2 games of his first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks, the newest Indiana Pacers star Pascal Siakam saw adjustments from his opponents as he was kept out of the paint and forced lower than this point line in 4 straight games. That gives us the perfect buy-low opportunity for Game 1 at Madison Square Garden.
Despite varying gamescripts, Siakam saw consistent playing time last series, posting at least 34 minutes in every single game and at least 37 minutes in every game that stayed within a 20-point margin. When playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Siakam now averages 24.3 points per game. The New York Knicks are also a matchup that requires him to be a scorer. Since the return of OG Anunoby to the lineup, New York is a stingy defense against the three-ball but a bottom-10 defense against pull-up twos, the midrange area in general and at the rim. While pesky defenders such as Anunoby, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart can lock up on the perimeter on the Pacers guards, Siakam has an advantage in size and a skillset inside the arc that Tom Thibodeau does not have a ton of counters to.
Even accounting for the slower pace and potential extra physicality of the playoffs, we project Siakam for 22.25 points in this matchup, making this prop playable up to -125 price. Consider a small sprinkle on Siakam to be the top points scorer of the game (ahead of the heavy favorite Jalen Brunson) at +1100 on FanDuel.
Check out our Pacers vs Knicks Same Game Parlay at +509 odds for tonight’s huge matchup
Christian Braun (DEN) Over 2.5 rebounds (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets has potential to be cinematic and it started with an upset win for Minnesota where they shot a crisp 52.4% from the field and 40.7% from three. Despite their surprising efficiency playing in tough road conditions, the young roleplayer Christian Braun found his way to 2 rebounds. Most notably, he played 19 minutes, a new high in these playoffs for him, and scored an energizing 7 points. It is clear that Braun’s energy on both ends of the floor could be a valuable asset as Denver looks to tie up the series, and at least 15 minutes for the 23-year-old should be a solid benchmark. This season, Braun averages 2.75 rebounds per 15 minutes when he comes off the bench and Nikola Jokic starts.
Minnesota is also a solid matchup here as they are among league leaders in shot volume on short midranges and corner threes, which account for 2 of the 3 most popular zones for Braun to grab boards. Combine this with some expected negative regression for the Timberwolves’ shot-making and we have a golden opportunity for Braun to clear this line with ease if he gets similar playing time again. Our fair projection in this spot for Braun is 2.75 rebounds, making this prop a steal at plus-money odds and playable up to a -110 price.
You can bet on these Siakam and Braun player props over at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has the best odds available for each prop and has an awesome sign-up offer where you can bet $5 and INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets! Click this link to join DraftKings now.
