Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We are nearing the end of the first round of the NBA playoffs and for some teams, it will be the last time we can bet on player props. This season, I am 54-37 for a +13.4% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series. Let’s dive into my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for the 3-game slate on Monday, April 29, while you can also find out our NBA picks for each of today’s matchups.
Caleb Martin (MIA) Over 9.5 points (-118)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This series has been a tale of two personalities for Caleb Martin and after a passive Game 3 where the Miami Heat were blown out on their home floor, Martin should be utilized as a scorer for a bounceback Game 4. Martin’s absolute floor in this game, barring injury or foul trouble, should be 33 minutes regardless of gamescript, given what he brings to the table on both ends of the floor.
He averages 8.8 points per 33 minutes this season as a starter when Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are not playing but Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are. However, the Boston Celtics continue to be the matchup for him to be active as a scorer. In Game 2, Miami rained threes at a historic rate against a lackluster Boston defense that fails to close out. In Game 3, Miami regressed shooting threes but not because Boston did something insanely special to adjust; Miami shot 1-7 from three when open and 5-13 from three when wide open, per NBA Stats.
In addition to those roleplayer threes being available, multiple members of the organization have said the gameplan will look different and part of that has to be to increase the pace and hustle in transition—enter the exact role of Caleb Martin (who shouldered a lot of the blame for passiveness last game). The usage should be back to normal in this contest and I’m projecting 12.5 points, making this line a steal and playable up to 10.5.
Read our Celtics vs Heat Same Game Parlay for tonight’s mega matchup
Naji Marshall (NOP) Over 6.5 points (+102)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Adjustments have been made in this series by the New Orleans Pelicans but it’s primarily in the big man rotation; their sixth man Naji Marshall should be good for about 20 minutes once again as their energizer bunny off the bench to defend the guards and wings of the Oklahoma City Thunder. This season off the bench without Zion Williamson, Marshall averaged 7.5 points per 20 minutes.
The Thunder also are a good matchup for him as their strengths are in defending top options and their issue is in weak-side help as they continue to be one of the NBA’s bottom 10 defenses against cuts and corner threes, which is exactly how Marshall finds scoring. Furthermore in this series, Marshall has 6 or more field-goal attempts in every game and overall, of his 19 shots, 6 of them are at the rim (where Oklahoma City remains below-average as a defense) and 8 of them are three-point attempts (7 of which were wide open, per NBA Stats). Marshall to hit at least one three is -150 but he has at least 7 points in 24 of 29 games this season when he has at least one made three and 18+ minutes played. I am projecting 9.5 points in this one; consider laddering Marshall up to 10+ points for a small sprinkle.
Read our full Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions
