Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We are near the end of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavaliers and Mavericks seek series clinches while the Magic and the Clippers look to fight another day. This season, the author is 56-37 for a +15.2% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are his two favorite NBA player prop bets for the brief playoff slate of Friday, May 3.
Jalen Suggs (ORL) Over 13.5 points (-102)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Magic need a hero as they look to avoid elimination at home. Their two-way guard Jalen Suggs saw an injury scare earlier in the series but has since returned and has looked aggressive again on both ends of the floor. With defensive-minded starting guard Gary Harris questionable and the stakes on the line in Orlando tonight, expect Suggs to play at least 33 minutes regardless of gamescript, with upside for 40 minutes if the game stays close.
As a starter this season alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Suggs averages 14.8 points per 33 minutes. The Cleveland Cavaliers are also a solid matchup for Suggs to produce offensively. While their top defenders such as Evan Mobley and Isaac Okoro contend with the one-two punch of Banchero and Wagner, Suggs gets the benefit of catch-and-shoot threes, pullup midranges, and finishes at the rim, all areas where the Cavaliers are below average defensively since the return of Mobley to their lineup.
In this series, Suggs has been cold hitting this over but not on lack of opportunity. Most notably, he is shooting just 24.0% from three in these playoffs after recording 39.7% from deep in the regular season (41.1% at home). Professionals figure it out and it’s best to bet on regression to the mean; in this spot, I am projecting 15.0 points for Suggs, making this prop playable up to -125.
Luka Dončić (DAL) Over 3.5 threes (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
There isn’t much to be discussed about this play besides good math asking for regression to the mean. The MVP finalist Luka Dončić has dealt with an injury and an illness in his first round series against the Clippers but has still dominated and played at least 40 minutes in every game despite some blowouts. More importantly, as he looks to close out the series at home tonight, despite missing this prop in three straight games, he has attempted at least 8 threes in every single game this series and in his two home games, he went 1-for-9 and 3-for-14 from three.
Overall, since Dallas restructured their lineup on March 7 following the Trade Deadline, Dončić averages 4.46 makes on 12.28 attempts per 40 minutes alongside Kyrie Irving. In an environment where he should look to take over against a defense that has no way of guarding his skillset, even correcting for potential blowout, we are projecting 11.0 three-point attempts and 4.00 makes; this prop is playable up to a -130 price.
