Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We are into the second round of the NBA playoffs. This season I am 57-40 for a +12.4% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for the 2-game playoff slate of Friday, May 10.
Pascal Siakam, IND, Over 20.5 points (-118)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
In Monday’s Pickswise prop article I backed Pascal Siakam when stepped into Madison Square Garden with this exact play. He went 8-for-16 from the field and got exactly the playing time I projected but missed 2 free-throws and ended at 19 points. In Game 2 he struggled finishing at the rim and making free-throws again, finishing below this number in both games of the series. My basis for backing Siakam is his advantage in size and the Knicks’ strong defense against the 3-ball but weaknesses in the midrange area and at the rim. The result of a passive, inefficient Siakam has been that Indiana is down 2-0 in the series.
The Knicks’ best individual defender, OG Anunoby, is out for Game 3. Even if New York adds more size to the lineup by starting Precious Achiuwa, the Pacers would be foolish to not draw up more early action in this game for Siakam for the former all-star that they traded for. Siakam has played at least 36 minutes in every single playoff game this year that stayed within a 20-point margin. When playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Siakam averages 23.3 points per 36 minutes.
Now back at home, even accounting for the slower pace and potential extra physicality of the playoffs, I project Siakam for 22.0 points in this matchup — making this prop playable up to -120 price.
Jaden McDaniels, MIN, Over 8.5 points (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The read here is not too complicated and just a numbers game as we buy low on our projections on a role player at home — a strategy that has often worked for me this season.
The defending champions are down 2-0 following a stunning pair of losses at home at the hands of the best defense in the NBA. That group is centered around Jaden McDaniels, who has played at least 34 minutes in every playoff game that stayed within 15 points despite some foul trouble being involved in those games. On the season, in games that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns both played, McDaniels averaged 11.9 points per 34 minutes. Denver’s defense must make adjustments to compete in this series and one of them has to be to get the ball out of the hands of Edwards, who has made it clear that he cannot be contained 1-on-1. As the Nuggets send more help to Minnesota’s primary scorers with their best defensive weapons, role players’ opportunities should go up and at the top of the pecking order should be McDaniels — whose 3-point shooting sees a massive spike at home and whose offensive game includes taking advantage of soft paint defenses such as the Nuggets’ with Nikola Jokić preserving his energy for offense.
In this matchup I project McDaniels for 12.5 points.
