Ahaan Rungta
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We have a massive 15-game slate of MLB action throughout today and it is time to pick our spots wisely and find where the betting value is. These are our favorite props for the evening slate of Tuesday, April 9, 2024, and you can also find out our MLB picks for today’s matchups.
Josh Bell (MIA) Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Miami Marlins are an MLB-worst 1-10 and part of the blame has to go to a regressing offense. However, that lineup gets good news today as they are set to face a left-handed starting pitcher that should be a good target in the New York Yankees’ Carlos Rodón.
Although Rodón is off to a solid start to the season by results, it may be a smokescreen. After posting an abysmal 6.85 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, and 4.87 SIERA last season, his peripherals look even worse to start 2024 as he has posted a 5.86 xFIP and 5.60 SIERA. At some point, the poor performance is going to catch up to him and the best candidate in the Marlins lineup to be a driver of it is Josh Bell.
Last season as a member of the Marlins, Bell posted a 178 wRC+, .270 ISO, and a 37.9% HardHit% against left-handed pitchers on the road. Although the results haven’t been there to start this season, he is still hitting the ball hard and launching it in the air, which should play right into the hands of a Yankee Stadium with good conditions on Tuesday. There is a reason Bell’s odds to hit a home run are shorter than usual on books like DraftKings that offer the “under 0.5 home runs” market. Bell should run into one against Rodón but even if he doesn’t, it is noteworthy that the Yankees’ bullpen ranks #24 in SIERA so far this season.
Read our full Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees predictions
Dominic Canzone (SEA) Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (+110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Seattle Mariners are also coming off a loss and face an easy target on Tuesday as they are set to match up against the Toronto Blue Jays’ starting pitcher Chris Bassitt. Simply put, Bassitt continues to decline after putting up a 4.21 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA last season and starting off 2024 with a 5.08 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. His splits continue to be much worse against left-handed hitters as well, as last season he allowed a .357 wOBA and .504 SLG while posting a 4.67 xFIP against lefties.
The Mariners hitter that stands out the most to take advantage of this is the underrated platoon weapon Dominic Canzone. This season, Cazone has put up a 101 wRC+, .259 ISO, and 37.5% HardHit% against right-handed pitchers; last season, it was much of the same as he put up a 100 wRC+, .224 ISO, and 43.5% HardHit% on the road against right-handers.
Seattle should get to Bassitt today and once he is out of the game, there should be more opportunities for them to score against Toronto’s bullpen, which ranks #28 in SIERA and has used their high-leverage arms plenty over the last couple of days. Canzone should be a heavy part of this action and plus-money is a great buy for this prop.
Check out our baseball expert’s MLB mega parlay for today at +1023 odds!
