Ahaan Rungta
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We are through the first weekend of the 2024 MLB regular season. Throughout the season, at Pickswise, we will help you navigate a sport with plenty of betting markets and provide you with value spots to bet every day for the next 7 months. Although today’s slate is filled with bad weather across the board, we have found a bet unaffected by precipitation. Let’s dive into my favorite MLB player prop for Tuesday, April 2, while you can also check out our MLB picks for today’s matchups.
Jake Burger (MIA) over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Miami Marlins are alone in the basement of the MLB standings, sitting at 0-5 and will need every bit of help they can get from their top hitters to finally break through with a win at home. Luckily, they get an opportunity to mash on Tuesday against Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson, who posted an abysmal 5.52 xFIP and 5.23 SIERA in his first year with the organization in 2023. Although Anderson could start the year with a bounce-back performance, the matchup is brutal for the lefty against aggressive power hitter Jake Burger.
Since he was acquired by the Marlins last season, Burger posted a minuscule 2.0% walk rate but a robust 129 wRC+, .229 ISO and 42.1% HardHit% against left-handed pitchers. Anderson posted nearly a 40% usage on four-seamers last season and Burger dawned a .787 xSLG against left-handed four-seamers as a Marlin last year. The heavy hitter in the middle of the Marlins lineup has a great chance to run into one against Anderson, but even if he doesn’t, he should have opportunities to do so against a shallow Angels bullpen. Burger is not in danger of being pinch-hit for in a platoon situation as he posted an elite 132 wRC+ against right-handers last season as a Marlin. This prop is playable down to -115.
See our MLB predictions for today’s big games after we went 9-1 with our picks yesterday!
