Ahaan Rungta
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We have a full 15-game slate of MLB action today and several opportunities with great conditions to find betting value, but we have done the work for you. These are my favorite MLB player prop bets for the evening slate of Thursday, April 16, 2024, while you can also find out our MLB picks for today’s games.
Alec Bohm (PHI) over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120. Recommended 1u wager.
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Colorado Rockies in Game 2 of a series that started off with a high-tension thriller at the top of the week. One thing is clear early in the season: the Rockies’ pitching staff is not good and Cal Quantrill’s gem in the series opener is an exception, not a norm. Today, Colorado will start left-hander Austin Gomber, who has a 5.02 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA since last year, which are just abysmal numbers overall. This season, he has been particularly atrocious against right-handed hitters, allowing a .500 SLG and 38.9% HardHit% to that side of the plate with his only decent pitch by xwOBA being a changeup.
This is great news for Alec Bohm. Last season at home, Bohm put up a low 6.2% walk rate but solid 102 wRC+ and .257 ISO against left-handers and overall, he had a .577 xSLG against left-handed changeups. Although he has started this season on the colder side, this even-money price is a great buy on the larger sample size of Bohm’s success in matchups like this. Even if Bohm doesn’t get us a cash early in the game against Gomber, the Rockies’ bullpen possesses very little fear, ranking #29 in SIERA and #30 in Pitching+ as a staff.
Cody Bellinger (CHC) over 0.5 runs scored (-115)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125. Recommended 1u wager.
The Cubs’ offense has been streaky to start the season and Cody Bellinger being off to a rough start to the year has been a contributor to that. Bellinger has scored a run in only 4 of his 16 games and has failed to score a run in each of his last 5. However, Tuesday night provides a phenomenal get-back spot. After a low-scoring extra innings affair last night, the Diamondbacks will start the untrustworthy lefty pitcher Tommy Henry. This season, despite their occasional struggles, the Cubs rank #13 in wRC+ and #3 in HardHit% against left-handed pitchers.
Indeed, the market agrees that the Cubs could get the bats going here as many home run prices in this game are absurdly short relative to where they usually stand. Henry has been heavily reliant on his 4-seam fastball and a newfound 2-seam sinker but last season, Bellinger posted an elite 12.5 run value/100 and .400 xwOBA against that fastball combo from lefties. Expect Bellinger to get on base tonight at least once against Henry but even if he can’t cross home plate early in the game, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is taxed after some of their top relievers have been heavily used over the last couple of days.
Read our full Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
