Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We have a relatively slim slate on the diamond today with just 6 MLB games on the docket, but there is betting value to be found on the player prop market. Throughout the season, at Pickswise, we will help you navigate a sport with plenty of betting markets and provide you with value spots to bet every day for the next 7 months. Let’s get into my favorite MLB player prop bet for Thursday, April 4, 2024, while you can also check out our MLB picks for each of today’s games.
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (+100)
Line available at DraftKings & BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Miami Marlins are in historical shambles, starting off the season 0-7. Some days, it has been their lack of offense, and some days, it has been a lack of pitching prowess. Luckily, with this market, we are not asking Miami to piece it all together, rather we are asking the offense to show a pulse against the veteran starting pitcher Lance Lynn. The Miami bats should be licking their chops at this opportunity; last season, Lynn posted a 4.50 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA overall and his splits were worst against left-handers, posting a 5.16 xFIP and allowing a .549 SLG against lefty hitters.
In the middle of the Marlins lineup is left-handed power bat Jazz Chisholm, who posted a 117 wRC+ and 35.8% HardHit% against right-handed pitchers on the road last season. Lynn has no pitches in his repertoire that were above league-average in run value/100 last season, and Chisholm should be heavily involved in humbling Lynn after a solid first outing of the season.
However, even if Chisholm doesn’t get us home against the starter, the Cardinals bullpen doesn’t contain much to be feared; although their results have been fine so far in the small sample size of the season, their 99 Stuff+ as a staff ranks bottom-five in the league. After scoring just 3 total runs in their last 2 games, Miami’s team total line is set to 4 for a reason and Chisholm is a great buy at plus-money to be a contributor to an offensive bounceback. This prop is a good buy down to a -125 price.
Read our full Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions
