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As Opening Day is upon us, we have 10 games to navigate on the diamond on Friday. Below are my favorite MLB player prop bets, while you can also check out our MLB picks for today’s action starting at 1:40 E.T.
Juan Soto (NYY) Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135)
Line available at ESPNBET Sportsbook at time of publishing. Wagering 1 unit.
Juan Soto did not disappoint in his first appearance as a New York Yankee. He recorded an RBI single in the 5th inning while also being walked twice. You can expect much of the same from the most disciplined hitter in baseball, who walked a league-leading 132 times last season.
Suppose this is your first time betting on the Hits + Runs + RBI market; strap in. DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM sportsbook are three of the major sportsbooks that offer this market. All we need is a combination of 2 hits, runs, or runs batted in. With the unique way Juan Soto finds the basepaths, this market is perfect for him, especially on the road where he’ll be today. Road hitters are guaranteed to hit in the 9th inning, which can pay dividends if we get an extra at-bat.
Soto will be matched up against Cristian Javier, who was a massive disappointment for the Astros last season. He registered a 4.42 xERA and struggled against left-handed hitters – the side Soto bats on. He allowed a .273 batting average and a .345 on-base percentage. Soto has only matched up against Javier twice, with a double back in 2022. Javier’s leash is expected to be short, so we may see only two at-bats against Soto, but we’ll gladly side with Soto here.
At the price of -135, instead of betting to win a unit, I’m personally scaling down by betting a unit. If Soto delivers for us, we’ll win .70 units.
Lock in today’s +1020 MEGA Parlay!
Merrill Kelly (ARI) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Merrill Kelly was phenomenal last season. His spectacular regular season was answered with an even more dominant postseason. He registered a 2.25 ERA in 4 starts, including a masterful seven-inning performance in the World Series that resulted in the Diamondbacks only win of the series. Kelly will face off against the woeful Colorado Rockies away from Coors Field tonight. Last season, the Rockies carried the highest K% against RHP on the road while hitting at the 10th fewest rate. Kelly allowed six and five hits against the Rockies at Coors Field last season, but you’ll find that most pitchers struggle to pitch there.
Kelly had a few issues with his command last season with a 9.6 BB %, so we could get lucked into a couple of walks to increase his pitch count. Nonetheless, I have Kelly allowing fewer than five hits like his teammate Zac Gallen did last night.
