Ricky Dimon
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It will be a huge rivalry matchup in the NFC South when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons square off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the ATL for Thursday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season. Tampa Bay owns the early division lead with a 3-1 record, while Atlanta has evened its record at 2-2 with 2 victories in its last 3 games. With this being a hot divisional clash, this more than deserves an SGP, so I’ve pieced together my Buccaneers vs Falcons Same Game Parlay picks for TNF, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Prime Video. You can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup in Week 5 and across the entire season.
Falcons -2.5 alternate spread (-102)
Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 receiving yards (-113)
Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+120)
Buccaneers vs Falcons Same Game Parlay odds: +718
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson helping out in the passing game would obviously work well with a win for the Falcons. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to rack up his fair share of passing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each leg.
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Atlanta Falcons -2.5 alternate spread over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-102)
The Falcons did not look great in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they have improved significantly over the past 3 games. A slow start followed by clear improvement is what was expected for a team that has a lot of new pieces on both sides of the ball — including quarterback Kirk Cousins. Atlanta is 2-1 in its last 3 with a competitive loss to the Kansas City Chiefs during this stretch. The Bucs are also playing well for the most part, but a 26-7 home loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3 remains alarming. Tampa Bay is dealing with injury issues all over the field, including DT Calijah Kancey (still out with a calf problem). There is a laundry list of guys who are questionable for Thursday. Regardless of their status, this is a good spot for the Falcons. They are playing their 3rd home game in the span of 3 weeks — not a common occurrence in the NFL. Look for ATL to take advantage and prevail by at least a field goal to start our Bucs vs Falcons Same Game Parlay.
Read our full Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 receiving yards (-113)
Atlanta has been unable to get its rushing game going so far in 2024. It may be able to on Thursday depending on the health of Tampa Bay’s defensive line, but the greater likelihood is that Robinson will do damage in the passing game. He has made 15 catches on 16 targets for 135 yards through 4 games. Cousins is not particularly mobile and will need to get the ball out quickly behind an offensive line that is without starting center Drew Dalman and possibly without tackle Kaleb McGary. As for the Bucs’ defense, it is allowing the second-most receptions (6.5) and the second-most receiving yards (60.8) to running backs so far this season.
Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+122)
Mayfield has been stellar this season; he has already thrown for 984 yards to go along with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. The former #1 overall pick is coming off a 347-yard effort against the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay now faces an Atlanta defense that is allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (8th-best in the NFL), so Mayfield and company may take to the air. The Falcons are dead last in the league with an anemic 4 sacks, so Mayfield should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket. He is probably in line for another big passing performance.
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