Give yourself a pat on the back – we did it. We made it to Week 1 of the NFL season. The offseason felt like an eternity, but our patience has been rewarded with an excellent Thursday Night Football matchup. The reigning Super Bowl Champions host the the Detroit Lions in what should be a closely contested matchup, especially if Travis Kelce isn’t on the field. Make sure to check out all of our NFL Week 1 predictions, but let’s get into my Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 8/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 78.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jahmyr Gibbs to score a touchdown (+165)
Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown (-105)
Same Game Parlay odds: +831
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Amon Ra-St. Brown over 78.5 receiving yards (-114)
One of the budding stars in the NFL is Detroit’s #1 receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown. The USC product had an excellent rookie season and took a huge step forward last year as he hauled in over 100 catches for 1,100 yards with 6 touchdowns. He averaged 72.56 receiving yards per game, but he was at his best during Detroit’s end-of-season surge. The Lions won 8 of their final 10 games last year, and during that 10-game span, St. Brown averaged 81.7 yards on 7.1 receptions per game. I don’t expect the additions of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to limit St. Brown’s production too much because one of Kansas City’s biggest weaknesses last season was their secondary. And while the Chiefs did focus on improving that aspect of their defense in the offseason, it is still filled with a lot of rookies.
However, the biggest worry about their defense is the absence of Chris Jones. The star tackle has been adamant about a new contract and announced he is willing to sit out the first half of the season to get it, so if Jones isn’t there to pressure the quarterback, Jared Goff will get more time to find St. Brown downfield. I’ll leave you with this – in the past 5 seasons, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in QB pressure rate with Chris Jones on the field but 28th when he’s on the sideline.
Check out our Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
Jahmyr Gibbs to score a touchdown (+165)
One of the greatest mysteries heading into this Week 1 matchup is the role that Jahmyr Gibbs will play. The 1st-round pick carried the ball for nearly 1,000 yards with almost 500 receiving yards last year at Alabama. He has shown the ability to take 20+ carries a game while also having elite hands to be able to break from the backfield and be a receiving option for his quarterback, so he seems like the perfect fit for Dan Campbell’s offense. Based on practice reports and how highly Campbell and the staff have been speaking about Gibbs, I would expect the rookie to get around 15 touches to go with 3-5 receptions on Thursday night.
He is going to share the backfield responsibilities with David Montgomery, but the former Bears back is less of a receiving back than Gibbs. When the Lions get into the red zone, I’m expecting Gibbs to get several opportunities on the ground and a dump pass or two as well. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, I like Gibbs’ chances to score in his NFL debut.
Prop Holliday is BACK with a pair of Lions-Chiefs player prop bets
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Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown (-105)
Chiefs fans and Travis Kelce fantasy owners are on the edge of their seats waiting for the injury update. Kelce reportedly hyperextended his knee at practice on Tuesday and is uncertain for Thursday night. Not only would that upset the Kelce fantasy owners, but it would also have a huge effect on Kansas City’s offense. It’s no secret that Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target since the big tight end somehow always ends up open in the middle of the field. And a big part of why their connection is so strong is that Kelce has barely missed any time. In fact, the last time he missed a game due to an injury was in his rookie season in 2013. He has missed 3 games since then, but twice it was for rest and the only time was from COVID-19.
That’s where Isiah Pacheco comes in. In Week’s 10-18 last season, Pacheco averaged 14 carries and 70.33 rushing yards per game and found the end zone 4 times. Although the Chiefs throw the ball more than any other team in the red zone, Pacheco’s receiving ability makes him another option for Mahomes. And if Kelce can’t play, I would expect Pacheco to get an increase in carries in the red zone.
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