Week 17 of the NFL season starts with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video. Our NFL expert, Clevta, has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Our expert has their best touchdown scorer bets for Cowboys vs Titans
Clevta’s Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans best bet: Cowboys 1H -6 (-110)
This is a strange predicament the Titans find themselves in this week. This game against the Cowboys is virtually meaningless and all that matters is Week 18 against Jacksonville for the AFC South title. On a short week this late in the season, there is a lot of merit for the team with the most players currently on IR, to sit some of its starters ahead of the Week 18 showdown. We’ve already seen Derrick Henry sit the first two days of practice and has been limited. If he doesn’t play, then this Titans offense with Malik Willis and a bunch of scraps will be hard-pressed to even get into double digits. Even if Henry plays, the Titans will do what they always do and run the football into a brick wall. The Titans have posted a -0.002 EPA per play and an average of just 16 points per game in the 3 starts by Willis. Willis ranks 70th out of 73 qualified passers by PFF this season and 54th out of 56 QBs in success rate. He’s been absolutely atrocious as a passer.
Who knows what the Titans decide to do, but they could very easily also completely sit or, at minimum, give a bunch of snaps off to defenders like Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry, who have both recently had to deal with injuries. No matter what, motivation is a huge concern. The Cowboys, on the other hand, need this win to give themselves a shot at the NFC East crown. They should be able to exploit this Titans’ defense early enough to get a lead. I hate laying double digits on the road because anything can happen late in blowouts, so instead, I will grab the first half with Dallas.
Check out our Cowboys vs Titans Same Game Parlay at +730 odds!
Clevta’s best prop bet: Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards (-115)
This number is right on his season average, but the matchup is much better against the Titans. Based on my opponent-adjusted target data, the Titans’ pass defense has allowed the 6th highest target rate allowed to TEs this season. They are also 27th in yards per target allowed to TEs. Schultz has only faced one other defense that has allowed a top-10 rate, the Texans. Schultz’s 10 targets and 87 yards against Houston were both season highs. Assuming the game script isn’t too out of hand, I have Schultz modeled for mid-40s yardage.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best player props for Cowboys vs Titans
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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