Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2024 NFL regular season got off to a terrific start in Week 1, and we’ve got plenty more football to enjoy this week. Starting things off, we’ll have a Thursday Night Football marquee matchup between a pair of AFC East foes as the Buffalo Bills lock horns with the Miami Dolphins. These teams shared a memorable Week 18 game last season and this installment should be a good one, as both teams are once again expected to be among the better squads in the AFC. Let’s dive into my Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay for TNF, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also, be sure to check out our NFL picks for EVERY Week 2 matchup.
Bills ML (+120)
Over 48.5 (-115)
Jeff Wilson anytime touchdown scorer (+125)
Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay odds: +725
A great way to get value in a Same Game Parlay is to include a potential contrarian pick if you so choose. That is the plan here, as Jeff Wilson finding the end zone doesn’t necessarily work well with a Bills victory, but at the same time, by taking Over 48.5 points we’ll need the Dolphins to generate some offense. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Buffalo Bills ML over Miami Dolphins (+120)
While I can see the case for taking the Dolphins at home in this spot, I love the value that we’re getting on Buffalo on Thursday. The numbers for Josh Allen are staggering against Miami in his career, winning 6 out of 7 games against Tua Tagovailoa while averaging 291 passing yards, a passer rating of 108.5 and posting a 19-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those contests. Furthermore, while both teams did rally from double-digit deficits to win in Week 1, the Bills were completely dominant from midway through the second quarter onwards, with the only touchdown they surrendered in the second half coming on a kickoff return. On the other hand, Miami needed to punch out a fumble at the goal line and score 13 unanswered points in the final quarter-plus to knock off a Jacksonville team that continues to invent new ways to lose close games.
The Dolphins do have the benefit of being at home on a short week, but Buffalo will likely look to control the clock with its excellent ground game and keep the explosive Miami offense off the field as much as possible. There’s also some potential variance that could be on the Bills’ side in this game, as the Buffalo game plan for important matchups against AFC East foes typically involves Allen improvising and taking control of the game. Miami hasn’t been able to stop him in the past, and I don’t see that starting here, especially since the Dolphins are banged up in the front seven and the secondary. Let’s take Buffalo to start off our Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay.
Read our full Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction
Over 48.5 (-115)
While the Bills picked up a win in Week 1, their defense appears to have taken a significant step back this season. To their credit, the defense elevated their level of play in the second half after allowing 17 points in the first half. With that said, the Arizona offense is basically a diet version of what the Dolphins have with their speed over the middle of the field, and that bodes well for this matchup here. Against better offenses, we expect more give from the Buffalo defense, especially without Matt Milano covering the middle third of the field. The Miami offense took a few quarters to get in rhythm but once they did, it was the same output we always see from Tua and company. The Dolphins totaled 400 yards, with the vast majority coming right at the end of the first half and in the second half. Allen and the Bills have dominated this Dolphins defense historically and Miami should score enough here to send this game over the total, so that’s where we’re going with the second leg of our Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay.
Get Prop Holliday’s best Bills vs Dolphins player prop bet for tonight at plus-money odds!
Jeff Wilson Jr. anytime touchdown scorer (+125)
Even if De’Von Achane is active at running back on Thursday, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was limited in some capacity. Achane already has a laundry list of injuries under his belt for his short career, and it’s clear that he’s not built for 15+ carries, especially on a short week. Conversely, Jeff Wilson looked solid in the limited work he saw in Week 1 against Jacksonville, carrying the ball 5 times for 26 yards, including breaking off a 14-yard run as well. Furthermore, Achane was the only running back for the Dolphins to get a red-zone touch in Week 1, so we can expect Wilson to take over that role with Raheem Mostert already ruled out for this contest. Let’s back Wilson to find the end zone to wrap up our Bills vs Dolphins SGP.
Find out our Bills vs Dolphins touchdown scorer best bets at +125 and +170 odds
