Filip Tomic
It is the first elimination game of the 2025 NBA Playoffs as the OKC Thunder take on the Memphis Grizzlies looking to end their season on Saturday at FedEx Forum. I’ve gone in-depth and compiled a +506 odds SGP, which is available below. Get predictions on the side and total for the rest of Saturday’s NBA postseason slate on our NBA Predictions page, but now let’s dive into my Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 4 SGP bet!
Over 221.5 Points (-110)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Made Threes (-205)
Isaiah Hartenstein to Record 8+ Rebounds (-225)
Desmond Bane Over 31.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-122)
Same Game Parlay odds: +506
Over 221.5 Points (-110)
We might be heading towards our first sweep of the 2025 NBA Playoffs on Saturday as the OKC Thunder look to put the final nail in the coffin of the Memphis Grizzlies’ season. Memphis came out with a ton of energy in Game 3 and led by as many as 29 points, but the Thunder showed us why they finished the regular season 68-14 by coming back and winning 114-108. Ja Morant has been ruled out for Saturday’s game. So far in 32 games he’s missed, Memphis has won 18 games and lost 14, which makes them a .563 pace win team. It is interesting to note that the offensive rating takes a jump from 117.6 with Morant to 119.9 without him in the lineup. Obviously, the Grizzlies are not the same team when their best player doesn’t play, so that could just be an indicator that they play at a much faster pace, sacrificing effort on the defensive end. Closeout games are never easy to win, especially on the road. But the Thunder have owned this matchup the entire year and are currently on a run of 12 wins in a row against Memphis stretching back to the 2022-23 season. I have OKC winning, but the spread looks a tad too high so let’s pivot to the points with the expectation that the Grizzlies won’t go down without a fight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Made Threes (-205)
It hasn’t been the most efficient of series so far for SGA, but he has the luxury to play not-so-good and his team is still able to win games. At some point the percentages will go up, that could be as early as Saturday. SGA has made it a conscious effort to knock down at least 2 threes every single game, even if it takes him double-digit attempts. As a result he’s cleared this line twice already in this series, continuing a trend over the past 20 games where he’s failed to knock down a pair of threes only 5 times. Memphis is a mediocre team at best when it comes to perimeter defense with opponents shooting 35.8% against them from three-point land this season. The pace of the game will surely go up now that Morant is out, so there could be extra shot opportunities across the board here. I am confident SGA will make a couple of threes here.
Isaiah Hartenstein to Record 8+ Rebounds (-225)
The supposed increase of pace will also benefit players like Isaiah Hartenstein who do most of their damage on the glass. In 57 regular season games he averaged 10.7 rebounds per game, but in 4 meetings so far with Memphis that number is up to 12.3 per game which is a clear indicator that the match-up against young and upcoming center Zach Edey is a favorable one. The Grizzlies have struggled to keep OKD off the boards in the 3 games so far, allowing 59 rebounds per game which is a significant increase compared to their season average of 53 allowed rebounds per game. Playing in his first ever postseason series, this is mainly a learning experience for Edey, he just isn’t on the level of Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren.
Desmond Bane Over 31.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-122)
This bet is predicated on the fact that Ja Morant won’t be able to play in Game 4 for the Grizzlies and it’s time for Desmond Bane to make the most out of his opportunity here. Bane has been one of the biggest underperformers this postseason in the opening 3 games of this series, averaging just 12.7 points per game while shooting 30.2% from the field and 20.8% from three. That’s quite the drop-off from his regular season averages of 19.2 points on 48.4% from the field and 39.2% from three. It’s not just his numbers that are down in this series though, the entire Grizzlies team is struggling which is understandable as they are gong up against a 68-win team from the regular season. However, I do expect Bane to put it all on the line with the Grizzlies facing elimination here. Judging by the raw numbers, Ja Morant not playing actually helps Bane here. In the 25 games this season without Morant his numbers have gone up to 21 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, compared to 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists when he plays. Bane’s usage rate is also a lot higher as he takes over some of the point guard responsibilities, I’m hoping he can translate that into a solid game here and make up for all the missed opportunities in the first two games.
