Filip Tomic
It’s a battle of two MVP candidates this Sunday on ESPN as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his OKC Thunder take on Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. Tip-off is set for 9 pm ET, I’ve picked out my 3 best bets and combined them into a tasty +524 odds Same Game Parlay. Get predictions on the side and total for Sunday’s slate on our NBA Picks page, but now let’s get into my Thunder vs Bucks bet!
MIL Bucks ML (+136)
Damian Lillard to Score 20+ Points (-245)
Chet Holmgren 2+ Made Threes (+122)
Same Game Parlay odds: +524
MIL Bucks ML (+136)
If there was ever a game where the Bucks have an opportunity to make a statement, it’s Sunday’s against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Milwaukee has a similar problem that the Knicks have this season where they struggle against the top tier teams in both Conferences, but catching the Thunder on a 2nd night of a back-to-back might be a decent opportunity to finally turn that negative trend around. The Bucks are also playing their 2nd game in two nights, but unlike OKC they didn’t have to travel in between games. Last night they took down the Indiana Pacers 126-119, to win the regular season series which could prove to be a valuable asset down the line if the two teams end up with identical records in the standings. Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated with 34 and 10 rebounds, the Thunder’s interior defense will have issues trying to contain him. Jalen Williams is still out for OKC, along with Aaron Wiggins. SGA went to work against the Pistons last night scoring 48 points, so the question is how much will he have left in the tank for tonight’s game. The Bucks have 7 wins in 9 meetings vs OKC, they’re also 10-4 SU in their last 14 games overall while also covering the spread in 6 of 7 vs West teams. Give me the Bucks here.
Damian Lillard to Score 20+ Points (-245)
Lillard has had a lot of success against the Thunder, even dating back to his Portland Trail Blazers days. In the last 10 meetings he’s averaging 24.9 points and has cleared this line 7 times without issues. Although his scoring is slightly down this month compared to February, he’s still at 24.3 points per game and ranks 11th in scoring for the season. OKC has done a fabulous job defending the perimeter this year, but that’s a challenge Lillard will gladly take on. Last night he made 6 threes on 12 attempts vs Indiana, with this game being a 2nd night of a back-to-back it makes sense for him to spend more time around the perimeter rather than taking it to the hole and risking contact and potential injury. The Thunder’s last 3 opponents have made 40.6% of their three-point attempts, that’s an increase of almost 7% compared to their regular season average which just shows how much they’re missing Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins right now. I expect Dame to get an easy 20 here.
Chet Holmgren 2+ Made Threes (+122)
Holmgren took the night off in Detroit yesterday, so he should have fresh legs for Sunday’s game. He’s coming off one of his most productive games of the season – he had 23 points and 15 rebounds in the win over Boston on Wednesday. He knocked down 3 threes in that game, reminding us all how lethal of a weapon he can be for this Thunder team. Considering the injury situation, his role on offense will once again increase so don’t be surprised if he takes 15+ shots from the field here. The last time he faced Milwaukee he finished with 22 points on 9-for-13 shooting in just 25 minutes of play. We saw just how the Bucks struggle with lengthy players like Kristaps Porzingis earlier in the year, Brook Lopez just doesn’t have the speed and quickness to step outside the perimeter anymore. Bobby Portis not playing also hurts the Bucks here, so Holmgren won’t have too many worries as far as his defensive match-ups are concerned. Milwaukee has allowed its last 3 opponents to shoot 36.9% from three, let’s hope the Thunder center can knock down a pair here.
