Ricky Dimon
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The sixth full week of the 2021 college football season is just about here and we don’t have to wait long to be entertained. Three top-25 teams are taking the field before Saturday even arrives: Coastal Carolina on Thursday followed by Cincinnati and Arizona State on Friday. We also have four all-top 25 showdowns this weekend — the highest number of the year to date.
For now, it’s time to look at some underdogs who can be expected to cover the spread or win outright.
Stanford Cardinal +13 over Arizona State
This spread has been on a steady climb since opening at -11 in Arizona State’s favor. Stanford backers may want to hold out in hopes of getting a full 14 points at kickoff, but the chances are that it won’t get that high. After all, 13 points already puts solid value on the Cardinal. They are coming off a 31-24 victory over then-No. 3 Oregon, giving them a 3-2 record overall and a 2-1 mark in the Pac-12. Quarterback Tanner McKee has been outstanding so far, with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has thrown for at least 218 yards in 4 of 5 games. The sophomore out of Corona, California, has also scored twice on the ground.
Thanks to its 4-1 record (2-0 Pac-12) in addition to Oregon’s recent loss, Arizona State is currently favored to win the conference title at +175. In turn, the Sun Devils are favored by almost 2 touchdowns over Stanford. This feels like a sell-high opportunity, as I don’t see head coach Herm Edwards’ crew winning a game by 13 points or more over an opponent that just knocked off Oregon. Stanford is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 overall and 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 home games. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 at home.
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Virginia Cavaliers ML over Louisville Cardinals (+115)
I rolled with Virginia last week, too, and that worked out to perfection. The Cavaliers were +4 underdogs in a weekday contest at Miami (FL) and pulled off a 30-28 upset. They are 3-2 overall, also with a 42-14 beatdown of Illinois. UVA signal-caller Brennan Armstrong is second in the nation with 1,973 passing yards, although he is really the leader because Fresno State’s Jake Haener has played one more game.
Don’t be surprised if another minor upset is on the cards. The two best teams Louisville has faced in 2021 are Ole Miss and Wake Forest; the Rebels dominated Louisville 43-24 and Wake Forest scraped by for a 37-34 victory this past weekend. UVA is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 overall. The Cardinals are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 against opponents with winning records.
LSU Tigers +3.5 over Kentucky Wildcats
This is another sell-high opportunity. Kentucky is coming off a huge upset of Florida and may be approaching a letdown spot with high expectations against LSU. Keep in mind this is still a team that just barely beat South Carolina 16-10 a couple of weeks ago. South Carolina is terrible. UK has been getting the job done with defense, as its offense has been limited to 20 points or fewer in the past 2 outings and it scored just 28 against Chattanooga.
In what is likely to be a low-scoring contest, I will happily take more than a field goal with LSU. Since their season-opening loss to UCLA, the Tigers are surrendering just 19.3 points per game over their last 4. On the the other side of the ball, QB Max Johnson has thrown for at least 325 yards on 3 occasions and his TD-to-INT ratio is 16-to-4. LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 on the road and 5-2 ATS in its last 7 against the SEC.
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