Kevin Davies
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The first half of the season is over and the second half is nearly here. The All-Star break was a fun time for players to take a much-needed break, but once Friday starts, it’s going to be intense. The trade deadline is on July 30, which means we’re about to see a lot of players moved in the next two weeks (Tarik Skubal? Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Jazz Chisholm?). Anyway, I took a deep dive into the futures market and found three best bets that I absolutely love. Let’s get right into it!
AL East to be the American League Winning Division (-105 at DraftKings)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
To clarify this, a team from the American League East must win the American League. There are 15 teams in the American League and 6 of them will advance to the postseason. Three will come from winning their respective division and three will come from earning a Wild Card spot. Here’s the good news: unless the unthinkable happens, there will be two American League East teams in the postseason. The Yankees and Orioles are in a dogfight for first place in the AL East and whichever team finishes as the runner-up will almost certainly earn a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs is giving the Yankees a 97.8% chance and the Orioles a 96.1% chance to make the postseason.
In addition to them, I’m expecting the other four teams to be the Guardians, Twins, Astros, and Red Sox. In my opinion, the Yankees and Orioles could beat any of those four teams in a three, five, or seven-game series. The oddsmakers agree, considering they have the Yankees and Orioles as the top two teams to win the American League with the Twins and Guardians farther back. Plus, if the Red Sox make the postseason, that gives us a 50% chance of winning this bet! I think the Orioles will win the AL, but if not, it’s great value to get the Yankees as a backup.
Boston Red Sox to Make the Postseason (+100 at DraftKings)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It was a slow start to the season, but the Red Sox found their rhythm at the right time. Boston had the third best record in June and then had the best record in July before the first half ended. Between a solid starting rotation headlined by Tanner Houck and a young lineup with Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, the Red Sox have already exceeded expectations. However, Boston isn’t settling for just that. New GM Craig Breslow has hinted that the Red Sox will be buyers at the deadline which means they are going to look for another starting pitcher, a right-handed bat and a reliever at the deadline. A few pitchers that the Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in include Jack Flaherty and Erick Fedde, as long as the price is right. Adding those extra pieces could be exactly what Boston needs to make a run into the postseason.
At the break, FanGraphs is giving the Red Sox a 52.5% chance to make the postseason. Winning the division seems to be out of the question, but a Wild Card spot is certainly a possibility. I’m expecting the biggest challengers for Boston’s Wild Card spot to be the Mariners and Royals, but after a first-half collapse by Kansas City and Seattle’s inability to produce at the plate, I think the Red Sox are the best team of the three.
Philadelphia Phillies to Win the National League (+255 at DraftKings)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The big, bad Dodgers aren’t all that bad. Mookie Betts has been out for the last few weeks with a fractured hand and he’s not expected to rejoin the lineup until the end of July or the beginning of August. The absence of Betts in the lineup has made the Los Angeles lineup extremely top-heavy with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, With Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez at the top of the order. Those four hitters have been great, but it’s been the other five hitters in the lineup that have been the problem. In a seven-game series, I think the Phillies would win in five or six games.
Philadelphia used their World Series appearance last year for momentum into this year as they’ve been the best team in baseball so far. The starting rotation was expected to be good with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as the two headliners, but nobody thought it would be this good. In fact, they had two other members of their rotation named to the All-Star Game (Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez). And once Spencer Turnbull returns, the Phillies will have five elite starting pitchers. As for the lineup, dominance has been an understatement. Philadelphia finished the first half of the season ranked third in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. Besides Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Alec Bohm at the top of the order, they have Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott, JT Realmuto, and Edmundo Sosa to complete the lineup. Philadelphia has an extremely balanced lineup which has been a big reason for their success at the plate in 2024.
At the break, the Phillies have an 87.4% chance of winning the division and a 99.9% chance of making the postseason. I’m anticipating an NL East title for Philadelphia, so that would most likely leave the other five National League teams as the Brewers, Dodgers, and then the three Wild Card teams which are too close to call right now. Regardless of the unknown, Philadelphia is the best team of the bunch. The only team that I believe stands even a chance at beating the Phillies is the Dodgers, but Philadelphia just swept Los Angeles in a three-game series two weeks ago. I’m backing the Phillies to win another National League pennant.
